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You wouldn't? Perhaps "estimate" was a wrong word, but you
wouldn't want to know what kind of drawdown to expect next
year based on your trading style?
Jitu
PS: It's ok to flame me directly. I won't get offended.
Intelligent debates are healty and helpful to everyone, IMHO. :-)
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Graham" <gkavanagh@xxxx> wrote:
> Jayson, why would you want to estimate next years drawdown?
> I too am mostly discretionary, or at least not reliant on
mechanical systems
> for trade signals.
>
> Cheers,
> Graham
> http://groups.msn.com/ASXShareTrading
> http://groups.msn.com/FMSAustralia
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: jtelang [mailto:jtelang@x...]
> Sent: Tuesday, 25 November 2003 12:30 PM
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] StoRSI... was Re: Robustness
>
>
> Hi Jayson,
>
> May I ask a potentially controversial question without offending
you? I'm
> always mystified by the confidence
> level of you discretionary traders... How exactly do
> you guys estimate your Max System % DD for next year?
> Is it purely based on what you've been experiencing
> over last few years?
>
> Jitu
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx> wrote:
> > John,
> > You are asking the wrong guy. I do not trade systems, I trade
> stocks. I find
> > some markets behave better using various indicators at given
> periods of
> > time. I am a discretionary trader who has yet to find any
> semblance of a
> > system that I would feel comfortable trading real money on.....
> which is not
> > to say that you or others have.
> >
> > Regards,
> > Jayson
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: john gibb [mailto:jgibb1@x...]
> > Sent: Monday, November 24, 2003 8:08 PM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [amibroker] StoRSI... was Re: Robustness
> >
> >
> > thanks for the feedback, Jayson.
> >
> > What are the bare minimum requirements for a 'system', in your
view?
> >
> > -john
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Jayson
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Monday, November 24, 2003 4:40 PM
> > Subject: RE: [amibroker] StoRSI... was Re: Robustness
> >
> >
> > No apology needed...it is not a system at all... but an
indicator
> that I
> > routinely use (as well as others) to help me determine entry and
> exit points
> >
> > Regards,
> > Jayson
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: john gibb [mailto:jgibb1@x...]
> > Sent: Monday, November 24, 2003 6:56 PM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [amibroker] StoRSI... was Re: Robustness
> >
> >
> > Hi Phsst,
> >
> > this helps; thanks...
> >
> > using a large number of issues makes sense for your testing
> because I
> > assume
> > you would consider trading any of those...
> >
> > i'm just looking for a sensible approach to evaluating systems
> both for a)
> > optionable stocks/indices and b) QQQ
> >
> > so far I conclude that, unfortunately, they are probably going
to
> be
> > different systems
> >
> > For example, my first reaction to Jayson's system (using the
QQQs
> from
> > their
> > inception in 1999 to date is forget it) (no offense, Jayson :) )
> due to
> > the
> > negative
> > 'return on account'. But using my 2000 or so optionables, I got
a
> small
> > positive
> > 'return on account'.
> >
> > What do you use, if not 'return on account', as a first-pass
> evaluator?
> >
> > thanks again,
> >
> > -john
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx>
> > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, November 24, 2003 10:43 AM
> > Subject: [amibroker] StoRSI... was Re: Robustness
> >
> >
> > > John,
> > >
> > > As I recall, Anthony's system focused upon QQQ test results,
> the same
> > > as Dave's.
> > >
> > > I failed to qualify my post with the caveat that I don't
> restrict my
> > > backtests to only one stock (I know that several folks do, but
> I just
> > > don't trust the validity of test results that are so limited
in
> scope).
> > >
> > > So if you are trying to compare report-stat thresholds against
> the
> > > QQQ's, then I am not qualified to help you.
> > >
> > > So my recommendation for looking at Jaysons StoRSI code was
> based upon
> > > test results against hundreds or thousands of issues. This
> makes it
> > > pretty easy to eyeball the report stats and see if there is
> anything
> > > of interest there.
> > >
> > > I am not trading the StoRSI system. Rather I am tweaking it to
> get a
> > > feel for how it responds to various filters and conditions.
Even
> > > though I have what I consider positive results that were
> achieved very
> > > quickly, I want to understand how any potential 'finished
> product' I
> > > come up with will react in many situations.
> > >
> > > Because of my early positive experience with the indicator, I
> thought
> > > it worth mentioning on the forum.
> > >
> > > I don't think this is what you wanted to hear, but I hope it
> helps.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Phsst
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "john gibb" <jgibb1@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > > > Hi Phsst,
> > > >
> > > > Can you share:
> > > >
> > > > a) what report-stat thresholds you looked at to
> conclude 'it
> > showed
> > > > promise'
> > > > b) any other specific recomendations to make a first-cut
> > > evaluation on
> > > > any proposed system. For example, if I want to quickly
compare
> > Anthony's
> > > > system in Message # 52872
> > > > with Jayson's)
> > > > ?
> > > >
> > > > thanks
> > > >
> > > > -john
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx>
> > > > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Sunday, November 23, 2003 8:37 PM
> > > > Subject: [amibroker] StoRSI... was Re: Robustness
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Sid, Owen & anyone else who is curious,
> > > > >
> > > > > I would suggest that you forget the StoRSI 8 8 3 code that
> Dave
> > > > > posted. (I never saw or heard CedarCreekTrading's
> recommendations
> > > > > regarding this trading system).
> > > > >
> > > > > Instead, you might want to take a look at the StoRSI code
> that
> > Jayson
> > > > > provided in Message # 52370.
> > > > >
> > > > > Add your trade delays, initial equity, positionsize,
> positionscore,
> > > > > other personal preferences for backtesting (including
> watchlist,
> > etc.)
> > > > > and other filters that make sense to you.
> > > > >
> > > > > I don't promise anything, but in my backtesting it showed
> promise
> > > > > almost 'out of the box', plus it has the graphic support
in
> IB for
> > > > > fine tuning.
> > > > >
> > > > > (Be sure to email me and Jayson if you find the Grail
<g>).
> (((( AND
> > > > > DON'T COME CRABBING IF YOU DON'T FIND THE GRAIL...
OK? ))))
> > > > >
> > > > > And as far as Robustness is concerned... robustness is in
> the eyes
> > of
> > > > > the beholder! (No more complicated than that)
> > > > >
> > > > > Regards,
> > > > >
> > > > > Phsst
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Sidney Kaiser
> <s9kaiser@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > > > Too much tongue in cheek...what are you trying to say
> here?
> > > > > > Sid
> > > > > >
> > > > > > At 10:32 PM 11/23/2003 -0500, you wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >Sidney Kaiser wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Steve K's system is not a system at all but rather
an
> idea
> > that
> > > > > needs to
> > > > > > >be
> > > > > > > > fleshed out to turn it into a money maker. I made a
> few
> > passes
> > > > > at it and
> > > > > > > > never discovered the appropriate additions to turn
it
> into a
> > > > > winner, so I
> > > > > > > > can understand Dave M's frustration with his
attempts
> to wring
> > > > > some profit
> > > > > > > > out of the idea.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >[Keep trying. It's not that hard.]
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >Er, scratch that. It's impossible. Forget you ever
> read it.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >Owen Davies
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
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