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Hi DT,
Thursday, November 20, 2003, 7:58:12 PM, you wrote:
>> 2) The right shoulder is slightly higher than the left shoulder.
>> That's a no-no for me. It should be no higher than, and ideally
DT> just
>> a touch lower than, the left shoulder. (Yes, I'm picky.) ^^_^^
DT> But you speak for a 37.36 vs 37.75, ie an 1% difference ????
I can't help it. ^_^ I noticed it right away.
>> 3) A touch of the neckline is a touch of a *support* line. While a
>> H&S is generally a bearish formation, it is not really bearish until
>> you get a clean, confirmed break of that neckline. This one has no
>> clean break. I would say a clean break is at least one bar with the
>> high lower than the neckline. Until that happens, it's a support
>> line, even in a rather bearish formation. Penetration is NOT
>> guaranteed by the formation itself. Maybe people misunderstand
DT> this,
>> and that's why so many claim the formation is worthless. Any
>> formation is worthless if you don't play by the rules. ^_-
DT> But, you shorted ^N225 3 bars b e f o r e the [unknown for this
DT> moment neckline breakout], donīt you remember ??
Sure I remember. ^_^ But I was not playing for a neckline breakout.
I was playing for a fall to the neckline. I got it. It was a normal
swing type play I think. I saw the bounce rolling over, and I took
the short.
At the time I took the shorts, and even before, I had a vision of a
H&S setting up. But to be sure, I didn't take those shorts *because*
of any H&S. I took them because price was rolling over, and the
overall formation spoke of price weariness.
DT> The question that began this thread is what do we do 2-3 bars b e f o
DT> r e the neckline touch.
If you see it setting up, why would you not short the right
shoulder's rollover? The obvious answer is, "How much room do you
have before you hit support"? I had plenty of room, and one reason I
had that room was that the neckline was horizontal.
Now look at BA again. Short the breakdown on 10/21, and you have a
profitable swing. It's not much though, because the neckline is
rising left to right. So you get a bar or two, and you better be
nimble about getting out.
DT> IMO, BA is a typical whipsaw example.
IMO, BA is not an example to get very excited about. As I say, I
didn't even see it until your code forced me to.
DT> This would be a good end of this thread: A H&S is what we see as a
DT> H&S and nothing more. I tried [unsucessfully] to introduce some
DT> objective criteria following your [respectable] personal vision, but
DT> it is the moment I give up.
It's okay DT. Really. I think it is probably Mission Impossible
anyway.
>> (One of the great keys to successful swing trading -- especially
>> short trading -- is figuring out how many got in how much trouble
>> exactly where. This is what made the ^225 H&S "predictable" before
>> it fully formed, IMO.)
DT> Shall we add this "how many got in how much trouble exactly where" in
DT> H&S criteria ? You should be kidding...
No, no, no. ^_^ Just a general comment on trading, that's all. It
was clear some people were in trouble here in Tokyo, and if it was
clear to this girl, it was also clear to people with a lot more money
who can really make things happen. I think they did.
DT> Thank you for your opinions, I give up at this critical point.
DT> Dimitris Tsokakis
Thanks for your hard work DT. I hope you are not angry at me. I do
appreciate all (and I marvel at your coding ability), but I do think
this type of thing has to be so obvious we don't need to code it. As
I said, it's kind of an analog thing (Left brain? Right brain? I
can never remember which one I'm using, or supposed to be using).
^^_^^
Best,
Yuki
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