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PS: There was NO technical reason for the -2% of this day DAX. There
was not even a financial reason to loose this percentage in half an h
or so. It was a good opportunity to buy some 2k shares of "cheap"
CSCO.F. For a +3% target or so...[else a breakeven...]
We could not call it t e c h n i c a l not even explain it 5 h later,
there is no need and it wouldnīt help the readers.
We should be slightly objective, if we want to communicate and, much
more, if we want to upgrade some T/A subjects.
Have a nice day !!
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > Hi Dimitris,
> >
> > Thursday, November 20, 2003, 5:50:17 PM, you wrote:
> >
> > DT> It is interesting to watch the false readings.
> >
> > DT> BA fulfills any H S requirement, even the Volume expansion
> > DT> at the touch with the neck line.
> >
> > A few things about this I would say:
> >
> > 1) Although the books accept H&S with slanting necklines, I almost
> > never pay attention to them. I like almost flat necklines. The
> > flatter the better.
> >
> > 2) The right shoulder is slightly higher than the left shoulder.
> > That's a no-no for me. It should be no higher than, and ideally
> just
> > a touch lower than, the left shoulder. (Yes, I'm picky.) ^^_^^
>
> But you speak for a 37.36 vs 37.75, ie an 1% difference ????
> >
> > 3) A touch of the neckline is a touch of a *support* line. While
a
> > H&S is generally a bearish formation, it is not really bearish
until
> > you get a clean, confirmed break of that neckline. This one has
no
> > clean break. I would say a clean break is at least one bar with
the
> > high lower than the neckline. Until that happens, it's a support
> > line, even in a rather bearish formation. Penetration is NOT
> > guaranteed by the formation itself. Maybe people misunderstand
> this,
> > and that's why so many claim the formation is worthless. Any
> > formation is worthless if you don't play by the rules. ^_-
>
> But, you shorted ^N225 3 bars b e f o r e the [unknown for this
> moment neckline breakout], donīt you remember ??
> The question that began this thread is what do we do 2-3 bars b e f
o
> r e the neckline touch.
> IMO, BA is a typical whipsaw example.
> > 4) Something just isn't very "H&S-ish" about this formation to
me.
> As
> > soon as I saw 'BA' in your note, I went to my own charts without
> > looking at your gif. I wasn't *exactly* sure where the H&S was
> > without a fair amount of staring and guessing. I'd have never
seen
> > it; so I would have never considered it such. It's got to stand
out
> > like a sore thumb to me.
>
> This would be a good end of this thread: A H&S is what we see as a
> H&S and nothing more. I tried [unsucessfully] to introduce some
> objective criteria following your [respectable] personal vision,
but
> it is the moment I give up.
>
> > And on the one's that stand out, the most common ways to play them
> > successfully (if there is such a thing as a common way to play
what
> I
> > consider a rather uncommon formation), is not to short
immediately
> on
> > a break of the neckline. That is similar to going long
immediately
> on
> > a breakout to a new high -- sometimes it works, but your risk is
> > greater. Instead, wait for a drop, and then a pullback to that
> > neckline, then short in that area immediately when price turns
down
> > again. You should have some help with your short there, because
> longs
> > who counted on the neckline as support will often be looking
to "get
> > out even" on that first bounce back to it. They may hold if the
> > bounce goes over the neckline a bit, but the first bar going the
> > other way will knock them out of the trees like an autumn wind.
> >
> > (One of the great keys to successful swing trading -- especially
> > short trading -- is figuring out how many got in how much trouble
> > exactly where. This is what made the ^225 H&S "predictable"
before
> > it fully formed, IMO.)
>
> Shall we add this "how many got in how much trouble exactly where"
in
> H&S criteria ? You should be kidding...
>
> > Right now, basis the ^225, the best short area would be around
> 10,200
> > if price returned there and showed failure. There just isn't any
> > percentage shorting here in what is still a bull market (or one
> > whopper of a correction in a bear market) ^_^. But this
discipline
> is
> > why I missed the big drop this week. Last Friday's close here was
> not
> > pretty, but it was still no violation of that neckline. Monday we
> > gapped a mile below it of course. You just are never going to get
> > all of these to play like a textbook example, of course, and you
can
> > lose potential profit even by playing them right. ^_^ I lost
> > potential windfall by covering shorts on last Tuesday's plunge
(the
> > 11th). But that was a plunge TO the neckline, and that was a
support
> > area, and indeed it bounced there. It was the right play. And I'm
> > still comfortable with my decision on Friday not to re-short. I'm
> > crying, but I'm comfortable about the pass. ^_^ If I made one
> > really bad move this week it was probably not shorting on Monday's
> > open. But I really hate to chase opens, especially here, where
> > professionals dearly love to fade emotional opens in either
> > direction. But Monday there was no fade -- it just dropped like a
> > rock. C'est la vie.
> >
> > My discipline on 'falling knives' also cost me a nearly 5 percent
> > gain on Canon today. But not entering yesterday was the right
thing
> > to do in my opinion. Another chance will come; they always do.
> >
> > Yuki
>
> Thank you for your opinions, I give up at this critical point.
> Dimitris Tsokakis
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