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Bill,
thank you for the valuable reference.
See my new requirements just posted.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "wavemechanic" <wd78@xxxx> wrote:
> DT & Yuki:
>
> FWIW, the following are Bulkowski's (Encyclopedia of Chart
Patterns) key
> characteristics and statistics for a H&S:
>
> Characteristics:
>
> 1. Shape - After an upward trend, the formation appears as three
bumps,
> the center one is the tallest, resembling a bust.
>
> 2. Symmetry - The two shoulders appear at about the same price
level.
> Distance from the shoulders to the head is approximately the same.
There
> can be wide variation in the formation's appearance, but symmetry
is usually
> a good clue to the veracity of the formation.
>
> 3. Volume - Highest on the left shoulder, followed by the head.
The
> right shoulder shows the lowest volume of the three peaks.
>
> 4. Downside breakout - Once prices pierce the neckline, they may
pull
> back briefly, then continue moving down.
>
> Statistics (431 formations in 500 stocks in period '91-'96):
>
> 1. Failure rate - 7%
> 2. Average decline of successful formation - 23%
> 3. Most likely decline - 15 - 20%
> 4. % meeting or exceeding price target (measured move) - 63%
> 5. Average formation length - 62 days
> 6. Average performance for (1) lower shoulder (right or left) or
(2)
> sloping (down or up) neckline - results not statistically
significant.
>
> Bill
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, November 19, 2003 3:37 AM
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: The expectation for an H&S
>
>
> Yuki,
> could you please take a look at
> http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulderscharts_.htm
> and tell me which example matches better to your H&S point of view?
> We could add some additional Volume conditions to the existing H&S
> code.
> 1. Do you want the Volume to form a H&S too [like JYC example],
> diminishing [like the BPC example] or something else ?
> 2. Does your picture agree with the volume expansion at the breakout
> [although it is too late for any action...]
> 3. Should we ask the 3 peaks to be a% higher than the recent [last
3-
> 6 months] lows
> 4. Any MAs condition as long as the H&S is created
> TIA
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > Hi Dimitris,
> >
> > Tuesday, November 18, 2003, 9:32:14 PM, you wrote:
> >
> > DT> Let us see the recent ^NDX behavior.
> >
> > DT> After a long period we have had [Nov9 to Nov10] the first
> > DT> important bearish signals, a simultaneous
> >
> > DT> ~MeanStochD and ~MeanRelSlope divergence. The whole market
> > DT> looks a bit tired and the bears have
> >
> > DT> a lot of reasons to wake up
> >
> > DT> P2 [Nov7] is the second peak of a probable H S
> > DT> formation.[sensitivity perc=3%]
> >
> > DT> The trendlines are no longer parallel, a slight converging
> > DT> wedge is apparent day by day.
> >
> > DT> If the next days will keep on creating the H S, let us see
> > DT> the proper action moment.
> >
> > DT> It is easy [and confusing] to speak after the
> > DT> facts .
> >
> > DT> We have more than 5 bars to see any complete form, let us
> > DT> concentrate in the details [other leading/lagging] indicators]
> >
> > DT> and add contributions to this thread, but, please, before the
> > DT> facts.
> >
> > DT> 15 bars later we may see what was written and make
> > DT> our comments [or laugh with our great texts !!]
> >
> > DT> I hope it is interesting.
> >
> > There is NO question that this market looks very tired. MRSI and
> RSI
> > divergences since September are telling. These divergences
persist.
> >
> > However, classic H&S is not indicated at all, to me. The volume
> > signals necessary to validate or suggest such a position just are
> not
> > there . . . unless we use our imagination and get very creative,
> > which is a violation of TA formation-spotting in my book. But
> > really, they are just not there, and I don't see it.
> >
> > The plain fact of the matter, though, is that markets do NOT hold
> > continuously at ~20 percent above their 200 day SMAs. And that is
> > roughly where this market has been churning higher for several
> months
> > now. In a strong trend of course, that CAN persist for a while.
> But
> > it is bound to come undone, and the downside risks here are not
> > insubstantial -- the longer this unsustainable posture persists,
the
> > sooner it has to come undone. This is an index where even the
> rather
> > responsive 18 day SMA has NOT ONCE even dipped below the 50 day
SMA
> > since they last crossed in March. It's an index that is up a
> > startling 40 percent since March. The only reason in my opinion
it
> > has been able to come this far, is that such a percentage is still
> > within some acceptable (and even normal) oscillation coming off
the
> > absurd bubble created in the late 90s. But we are somewhat due
for
> a
> > pullback of some magnitude I think.
> >
> > But I see nothing right now to indicate a major trend change, and
> > certainly no H&S as I need to see them. But I see plenty to
suggest
> > that the risks of a major (and I think much-needed) correction are
> > increasing. That correction could easily take the ^NDX as low as
> > 1200. But that is only about a 16 percent pullback from the
recent
> > highs, and would still NOT indicate a reversal to a bear market.
> >
> > However, it could indicate the beginning of a broad sideways
> > oscillation that swing and intermediate term traders might love,
> > where the ^NDX roams up and down, covering 200 plus points at a
> time.
> >
> > All that said, once again I see no signs of any complete trend
> > reversal at all. But I see a one-way market for 7 months in what
is
> > more often a two-way world. This happens. It happens over and
over
> > again. But IT DOES NOT PERSIST over long time periods, and this
one
> > is getting long in the tooth, IMO. The low-hanging fruit is
likely
> > to have been plucked, and the road ahead may be more "interesting"
> > that the road just traveled. I think many of these stocks will be
> > available for decent long opportunities at better prices than we
are
> > now seeing.
> >
> > Yuki
>
>
>
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