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Hi Danny,
Tuesday, November 18, 2003, 3:25:06 PM, you wrote:
d> Actually, if you take away all the information on a chart, an intraday
d> chart looks like a daily chart or weekly chart really. Daytrading is
d> all about cutting your losses really fast, so if you are one of those
d> traders that do the opposite, well then, you need to rethink your
d> strategies. As for making profits on daytrading, I trade the ES (SP500
d> mini's) and NQ's and do fine. Personal preference. I know position
d> traders that do quite well (a buddy of mine went long on gold at the
d> beginning of the year and I never hear the end of it.) and I also know
d> daytraders that do well too (one of the guys that meets at our trading
d> club made 12k on a single day 3 weeks ago..and yes, he proved it with
d> trading record from IB). Of course, the way he traded would have made
d> a sane person bend over in agony, cause he kept averaging down and
d> believed in his studies. I personally want to slowly get out of
d> daytrading and into more swing trading, hence Amibroker. Money
d> manangement is the same no matter what timeframe you trade in.
Largely true, I think. But I still stand by my opinion that there is
more noise, the shorter the time frame. I think it's easier to see
what institutions are doing over a period of days and weeks, than it
is to figure out when the futures boys are going to make a sudden
play that is going to move my position. I can react to them, but I
am *always* going to be a step behind. They head fake sometimes,
then go the other way, but sometimes they go without the fake and
just run. It is *very* hard to predict their moves, but they can move
the market. (I am specifically talking ^225 futures here, but I
suspect S&P are no easier.)
Manipulation also takes place largely in the shortest time frames,
IMO. The longer the period during which manipulation is taking place,
the greater the chance of regulatory discovery, and the greater the
chance of the market simply reacting to what many might perceive as
bad pricing. So there is a limit on how much manipulation can be
done, and on the time frame as well. But it's done, and done often,
I believe. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but anybody who
thinks this is a completely clean game is asking to get cleaned out.
Human nature simply does not allow for this to be a completely honest
game. This is MONEY, folks. People lie, cheat, and steal to get it.
Not everybody of course, but people who do are naturally attracted to
this activity, and the temptations and rewards are fantastic. The
bad guys are *here*, whether you see them or not.
But . . . the choppier the market, the more advantage a day trader
will have over position or swing. In a strongly trending market
though, nobody beats a good position trader. It just cannot be done,
I submit. But studies show most of the time the market does not
trend. ^_-
Yuki
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