|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
You guys are confusing randomness, independence and stationarity big time.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx> wrote:
> agreed. if the fact that a trading system did well in the past has no
> bearing whatsoever on whether it does well in the future, how can we
know
> anything at all about the future performance of a proposed trading
system?
>
> dave
>
> The gambler”Ēs fallacy is a fallacy because the gambler ignores the
> independence of the outcomes and looks for patterns that do not
exist. If
> we have designed trading systems based on recognition of patterns that
> precede profitable trading opportunities, and if those patterns are
> persistent, then we no longer have random, independent outcomes. Our
> trading systems do have serial dependencies and upward sloping equity
> curves. So analysis of the equity curve provides an indication of the
> health of the trading system.
>
>
>
> Howard
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Buy Ink Cartridges or Refill Kits for your HP, Epson, Canon or Lexmark
Printer at MyInks.com. Free s/h on orders $50 or more to the US & Canada.
http://www.c1tracking.com/l.asp?cid=5511
http://us.click.yahoo.com/mOAaAA/3exGAA/qnsNAA/GHeqlB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
-----------------------------------------
Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
--------------------------------------------
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|