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Ergo my question about dd's. I didn't think it needed much in the
way of interpretation except to understand what context the DD's were
in.
As a followup here I have a question. If the next step(s) are issue
nomination/selection and we chose to do that manually as opposed to
having some algorithm for objective selection do you feel that then
has the potential for calling into question the robustness of the
system which now incorporates issue nomination/selection ? and if not
why not ?
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "quanttrader714"
<quanttrader714@xxxx> wrote:
> Nobody's taken a stab at interpreting the pics I posted in the
example
> folder of the photo section, so here goes... This is a good system
> paired with a bad issue... it's my benchmark system (w/commission
> setting of 1%) which is robust but it certainly doesn't trade
> everything well, lol. Proof positive from this stock! Looking at
pic
> 1 (% profit/trade), winners look fairly consistent but losers are
not
> and are nasty on top of it. Pic 2 gives the opposite view (losers
> look more consistent than winners) which is why criterion 3 requires
> that both be consistent. In this case, the likely culprit of the
> disagreement (you'd have to actually dig into the trades to be sure)
> is the system couldn't get out of the losing trades this stock threw
> at it quickly enough. Even so, the probability of profit after 10
> trades is not bad (pics 3 & 4) although I'd feel much more
comfortable
> with 90%-95% as opposed to 80% (any questions on reading these?).
The
> potential drawdowns are *awful* (pics 5 & 6). For example, 80%
> likelihood of drawdowns 30% or greater, 50% likelihood of drawdowns
> 40+% or greater, and 10% likelihood of drawdowns 70% or greater.
> Egad!!!!!!
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