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Re: [amibroker] Robustivity



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Dave,
 
<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
size=2>just for my understanding, in what sense is this system "robust"? 

<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
size=2> 
Well, first, this 
was presented to the public in the late 90's, at a series of seminars that I 
conducted for Equis.  Same indicator, same triggers, same everything.  
This robust "thing" is a tough one to define.  I'll try to explain what's 
important to me, but, it's very subjective and just one person's opinion.  

<FONT face=Arial 
size=2> 
<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
size=2>is it because results are similar with 
different similar periods and thresholds?
<FONT face=Arial 
size=2> 
If you take this 
CMO5 indicator and step down in time (5, 10, 60 minutes), you need to widen 
the triggers to obtain decent results.  Other than that, it trades 
through time-zones with very good results.
<FONT face=Arial 
size=2> 
<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
size=2>that seems unlikely, since there isn't very far to go from 5 to hit 1 and 
0, which I'd guess are significantly different. what sort of testing led you to 
decide on this period and threshold, and this system for that 
matter?
<FONT face=Arial 
size=2> 
If you're referring 
to the CMO5...I first started testing it six years ago.  I've tested and 
eyeballed every version of CMO(x).  I've created a few indicators that 
combines different periods of the CMO.  For my money, for my style, this 
judge of momentum trades more things, more accurately than any other indicator I 
am aware of.  As I have begged many times:  give me something 
better...I'll use it instead of this.
<FONT face=Arial 
size=2> 
<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
size=2>is it robust because it works well on many 
stocks, indexes and funds over a long period of time? 

<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
size=2> 
Yes, it works well 
on many stocks and indexes.  I don't trade funds, but, some fund managers, 
DTG members, use versions of the CMO to aid their timing.  

<FONT face=Arial 
size=2> 
<FONT 
face="Courier New" color=#0000ff size=2>because of the concepts behind the 
indicator itself?
<FONT 
face="Courier New" color=#0000ff size=2> 
<FONT 
face=Arial size=2>I process visually.  The math is beyond me.  My 
bottom line has always been the same:  give me an indicator that is smooth, 
yet sensitive to intermediate and major market turns.  After gawking 
hundreds of charts, everyday, for the last six years, I'm amazed at how this 
indicator quantifies momentum.  I like versions of the Stochastic RSI and 
the Standard Error Oscillator, but dollar for dollar, the CMO does it for 
me.
<FONT 
face=Arial size=2> 
<FONT 
face="Courier New" color=#0000ff size=2>something 
else?
<FONT 
face="Courier New" color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
class=468263723-30102003> 
<FONT 
face=Arial size=2>I think there's a few other 
things to mention.  First of all, the ETF's that I showed were chosen 
because they represent a broad range of stocks and are popular trading 
instruments.  Do I suggest trading these issues with this 
system?  No way.  The CMO5 trades a lot of other issues with better 
results than the ETF's.  I always allow the issues "to pick 
themselves".  Trade the issues that return the greatest percentages in a 
stable system.  
<FONT 
face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=468263723-30102003> 
<FONT 
face=Arial size=2>In it's stripped down version, 
as presented, the CMO5 is an indicator that can return steady profits (see 
equity lines) in it's rawest unoptimized form.  Is that robust?  

<FONT 
face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=468263723-30102003> 
<FONT 
face=Arial size=2>Robustness and 
optimizing/over-optimizing are fascinating and misunderstood subjects.  
Over the years, I've constantly simplified my approaches.  I can improve on 
the results of the three ETF's by simply "tweaking" the trigger levels.  
But, will it walk forward better than the default triggers of 34/-34?  At 
least what I presented was out of sample.  

<FONT 
face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=468263723-30102003> 
<FONT 
face=Arial size=2>If an approach does a good 
job of identifying movement of supply and demand, the approach should not 
be expected to work on all issues.  To say a system needs to 
work on all  issues is total crap.   To say that a 
system sucks because it doesn't work on XYZ is another large pile.  Build 
simple things and concentrate on issue 
selection.
<FONT 
face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=468263723-30102003> 
Optimization leads 
to dark and spooky places.  Ranking leads you down the yellow brick 
road.
<FONT face=Arial 
size=2> 
Take 
care,
<FONT face=Arial 
size=2> 
<FONT face=Arial 
size=2>Steve
<FONT face=Arial 
size=2> 
<FONT face=Arial 
size=2> 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  Dave Merrill 
  
  To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2003 5:05 
  PM
  Subject: RE: [amibroker] 
Robustivity
  
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003>steve, thanks for sharing this 
  (again).
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003>just for my understanding, in what sense is this 
  system "robust"? 
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003>is it because results are similar with different 
  similar periods and thresholds? that seems unlikely, since there isn't very 
  far to go from 5 to hit 1 and 0, which I'd guess are significantly different. 
  what sort of testing led you to decide on this period and threshold, and this 
  system for that matter?
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003>is it robust because it works well on many stocks, 
  indexes and funds over a long period of time? 
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003>because of the concepts behind the indicator 
  itself?
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003>something else?
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003>I'm not disputing the system's value, which I haven't 
  tested yet. I'm trying to understand what kind of process you go through to 
  settle on a system and settings.
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003>thanks,
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003>dave
  <SPAN 
  class=468263723-30102003> 
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  >
    1.  This exact system was presented over a 
    year ago at this forum
    2.  The charts are OOS (since, it's been 
    posted publicly forever)
    3.  Rules are simple:  Buy the 
    opening of the next day when the CMO5 closes below -34 and sell when it 
    triggers above 34.
     
    Works on most issues (raw).  Works better 
    if:  
     
    a.  You take trades only with the 
    trend
    b.  You protect yourself from large 
    drawdowns (stop)
    c.  You conjure a profit target 
    (limit)
    d.  You put in a time stop 
    
     
    This is the guts of an indicator and a logical 
    systematic approach.  Whistles and bells are optional (but, in my 
    opinion necessary).  Again, if you start with a pig, the prom dress 
    doesn't make it look any better.  Don't hang ornaments on a twisted 
    Christmas tree.Send 
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