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Michael Robb wrote at <A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/50714
"II. This is fascinating work you are doing lately, especially
this approach to trendline drawing. I have been most pleased with your
RSIMACD II, but lately have seen deterioration in results due, I believe, to the
upwardly slanted (manipulated?) corrective behavior, that would long ago have
resolved itself into the normal succession of direction followed subsequently by
correction so typical of markets much of the time where ATR is sufficient to
produce substantial profit trading OB OS"
A grail-less system is good for some period but not for
ever.
Some elementary criteria may save the sweet profits.[Equity
should not be below its 100MA, for example]
Some other, more detailed, criteria may advise to stop the
system before it is too late [the Slope of the 100MA should not be
negative]
For more sophisticated techniques, the Inspection Points are
already exposed in detail.
The end of April2003 was the last warning that the market has
changed [and the trading style could not remain the same,
IMO...]
After the end of May2003 there was no excuse to follow the
decline of a system that gave you profits during the collapse !!
[A +120% is surely worse than +200% but, for a two years
period is not bad at all...]
May has, like every May, 31 total [trading or not trading]
days, more than enough to prepare the change of the style.
Grail-owners do not have this headache, they know the market
in advance.
All-weather-system owners are also happy, they only add to
their account all life long.
The rest of us should THINK, if we want to
survive.
Aretha Franklin said that better than me, of course, with
this divine voice.
My position is in the back vocals, in one way or
another...
Dimitris Tsokakis
PS. See for example the interesting story of an old
TTM
<FONT
size=2> F10=Foreign("~meanRSIt10","V");F20=Foreign("~meanRSIt20","V");F30=Foreign("~meanRSIt30","V");F40=Foreign("~meanRSIt40","V");bear=
Foreign("~macdbear","V");bull=Foreign("~macdbull","V");T10=F10/(BULL+BEAR);T20=F20/(BULL+BEAR);T30=F30/(BULL+BEAR);T40=F40/(BULL+BEAR);/*TRADE
THEM ALL No
I*/Buy=Cross(T20,T40);Sell=Cross(T30,T10);Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell);Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy);Short=Sell;Cover=Buy;Short=ExRem(Short,Cover);Cover=ExRem(Cover,Short);E1=Equity();MAE1=MA(E1,100);//SLOPE=ROC(MAE1,20);SLOPE=LinRegSlope(MAE1,20);Plot(SLOPE,"SLOPE",colorBrightGreen,styleLeftAxisScale);Plot(0,"",Cum(1)%2,styleLeftAxisScale);Plot(Equity(),"E",1,1);Plot(MA(Equity(),100),"ma",colorRed,1);
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