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[amibroker] Re: Yes, You Can Time the Market (was Dimitris... QQQ Trendline Support again)



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Thanks for the link to the article.  Long-term Speculation may be 
easier and more prudent, but for small investors like me, the daily 
problem of market prediction for the next day is a necessity.  I 
agree with what Ben Stein basically Says, "Yes, You Can Time the 
Market", but not only for 15 years as he says but for short, 
intermediate and long-term (with the same risk), though I can't say 
the same thing about intra-day-trading...

Regards,

Pal
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> 
wrote:
> We, the poor traders, have to solve these humble daily problems, 
> before the next unsolved appear. Some other people are more than 
> happy to speculate the next 15 [or 115 for more safe positions...] 
> years. I'm still laughing to tears with the great
> http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/031024/98312_1.html
> Take a look, as long as it is available...
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> > <[when I write "we", I add you to the great holygrail-less team
> > I belong.>
> > 
> > Dimitris,
> > 
> > I am honored, not to mention eminently qualified to join this 
team. 
> I
> > think I even have credentials...   :-)
> > 
> > I enjoyed working (past tense) for my bread too. Sometimes it was
> > hard, but more often it was fun.
> > 
> > Phsst
> > 
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" 
> <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > Moving from Japan to Europe, 4h50 before the NY bell, the 
general 
> > > outlook is not bearish. The day is still young, we shall know 
> more 3h 
> > > later. [when I write "we", I add you to the great holygrail-
less 
> team 
> > > I belong. Some happy traders know everything in advance, I do 
not 
> > > belong to this [boring] category, I have to work hard for the 
> bread 
> > > an butter of my family and I like it].
> > > Dimitris Tsokakis  
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" 
> <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> 
> > > wrote:
> > > > Phsst,
> > > > Since we know [http://www.amibroker.com/library/detail.php?
> id=105] 
> > > > the support line equation
> > > > trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS; 
> > > > we may explore with
> > > > filter=abs(L-trendlineS)<coeff*L
> > > > and see the probable "touch". 
> > > > Coeff values between 0.01 and 0.02 give an idea.
> > > > Here is an example
> > > > 
> > > > per=3;// calibrate
> > > > x = Cum(1);
> > > > s1=L;
> > > > s11=H;
> > > > pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > > endt= LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 1 ));
> > > > startt=LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 2 ));
> > > > dtS =endt-startt;
> > > > endS = LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, s1, 1 ) );
> > > > startS = LastValue( ValueWhen( pS, s1, 2 ));
> > > > aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;
> > > > bS = endS;
> > > > trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;
> > > > Coeff=0.01;// calibrate 
> > > > F=abs(L-trendlineS)<Coeff*L;
> > > > AddColumn((abs(L-trendlineS))/L,"Coeff",1.3);
> > > > Filter=f;
> > > > 
> > > > Select your Coeff and explore.
> > > > As for your second question, do not forget the other 
> > > interpretation, 
> > > > a "touch" is ideal for a bearish breakout...
> > > > Dimitris Tsokakis
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Dimitris,
> > > > > 
> > > > > A few weeks ago we exchanged some trendline dialogs when 
the 
> > > QQQ's 
> > > > had
> > > > > hit trendline support.
> > > > > 
> > > > > I made the QQQ trade a day or two late on (10/02), but 
still 
> made 
> > > a
> > > > > nice profit.
> > > > > 
> > > > > Well, the Q's are bouncing around the lower support 
trendline 
> > > again.
> > > > > 
> > > > > The only way I can figure to play it is to buy 'at support' 
> again.
> > > > > 
> > > > > I now have a collection of 'trendline' indicators (from you 
> and
> > > > > others) that I intend to convert into explores that will 
find 
> > > these
> > > > > opportunities for me. But the 'Pattern Recognization' afl 
did 
> not 
> > > > pick
> > > > > up on the Q's tonight.
> > > > > 
> > > > > Just wanted to mention this to you to see if you might be 
as 
> > > curious
> > > > > as me about trying to trigger a signal on such a strong 
> signal.
> > > > > 
> > > > > Phsst


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