|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hi Mark,
Sunday, October 26, 2003, 1:26:34 PM, you wrote:
M> That's a great question. I see that Pal responded with his usual home
M> spun wisdom and think the following is closer to what you're looking
M> for. I wrote an exploration to compare the support & resistance
M> levels (s1, s2, r1, r2) to the lows and highs of the days immediately
M> following. The code is simple and self explanatory. You can then
M> copy and past the results into your favorite spreadsheet or statistics
M> program. I think it's most useful to look at distributions of the
M> results but since the graphics don't post here anymore, I did some
M> stats to include 95% t confidence intervals on 5 years on AAPL, INTC,
M> and MSFT and the last year for all of the ND100 stocks. Looks like r1
M> and s1 are much better than r2 and s2.
M> The Exploration:
M> p = (H+L+C)/3;
M> r1 = (2*p)-L;
M> s1 = (2*p)-H;
M> r2 = p +(r1 - s1);
M> s2 = p -(r2 - s1);
M> Filter = 1;
M> AddColumn( DateTime(), "Date", formatDateTime );
M> AddColumn( r1, "r1", 1.2 );
M> AddColumn( r2, "r2", 1.2 );
M> AddColumn( Ref(H,1), "Tom High", 1.2 );
M> AddColumn( r1-Ref(H,1), "r1-TH", 1.2 );
M> AddColumn( r2-Ref(H,1), "r2-TH", 1.2 );
M> AddColumn( s1, "s1", 1.2 );
M> AddColumn( s2, "s2", 1.2 );
M> AddColumn( Ref(L,1), "Tom Low", 1.2 );
M> AddColumn( s1-Ref(L,1), "s1-TL", 1.2 );
M> AddColumn( s2-Ref(L,1), "s2-TL", 1.2 );
M> The Stats:
M> TH = Tomorrow's High and TL = Tomorrow's Low
M> 1. AAPL Oct 98- Oct 03
M> Variable Mean StDev SE Mean 95.0 % CI
M> r1-TH -0.0044 1.1599 0.0327 ( -0.0687, 0.0598)
M> r2-TH 0.6864 1.3892 0.0392 ( 0.6094, 0.7633)
M> s1-TL -0.0048 1.1422 0.0322 ( -0.0681, 0.0584)
M> s2-TL -1.3852 1.7022 0.0480 ( -1.4794, -1.2909)
M> 2. INTC Oct 98- Oct 03
M> Variable Mean StDev SE Mean 95.0 % CI
M> r1-TH -0.0295 0.9505 0.0268 ( -0.0821, 0.0231)
M> r2-TH 0.7002 1.1300 0.0319 ( 0.6377, 0.7627)
M> s1-TL -0.0293 1.0275 0.0290 ( -0.0862, 0.0275)
M> s2-TL -1.4663 1.4852 0.0419 ( -1.5485, -1.3841)
M> 3. MSFT Oct 98- Oct 03
M> Variable Mean StDev SE Mean 95.0 % CI
M> r1-TH -0.0060 0.7022 0.0198 ( -0.0449, 0.0329)
M> r2-TH 0.5625 0.8216 0.0232 ( 0.5171, 0.6080)
M> s1-TL -0.0057 0.7449 0.0210 ( -0.0469, 0.0355)
M> s2-TL -1.1369 1.0378 0.0293 ( -1.1943, -1.0794)
M> 4. ND100 Stocks Oct 02- Oct 03
M> Variable Mean StDev SE Mean 95.0 % CI
M> r1-TH -0.02157 0.62947 0.00395 (-0.02930,-0.01383)
M> r2-TH 0.47090 0.77880 0.00488 ( 0.46133, 0.48047)
M> s1-TL -0.02238 0.60138 0.00377 (-0.02977,-0.01499)
M> s2-TL -1.02103 0.95038 0.00596 (-1.03271,-1.00935)
This is super, and I really appreciate it. Now, could you (or
anyone) tell a simple Japanese housewife with little mathematical
background exactly what you have done here -- in prose -- with this
95 percent business? ^_^ Seriously, and perhaps sadly, I don't really
understand exactly what some of these numbers mean. I can catch on
pretty quick I think, but I need some kind of guide so I can figure
it all out.
Thanks again!
Yuki
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Buy Ink Cartridges or Refill Kits for your HP, Epson, Canon or Lexmark
Printer at MyInks.com. Free s/h on orders $50 or more to the US & Canada.
http://www.c1tracking.com/l.asp?cid=5511
http://us.click.yahoo.com/mOAaAA/3exGAA/qnsNAA/GHeqlB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
-----------------------------------------
Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
--------------------------------------------
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|