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Hi,
I don't have any hidden agenda other than world domination...(Just
kidding)..
Regards,
Pal
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> Pal,
>
> Thinking about it, you are not unique in my internet experiences.
>
> You have your own agenda and you are feeding off of the negative
> reactions that you generate from others.
>
> Whatever your agenda... good luck. I'll just ignore you from this
> point on. (Wish I'd recognized it for what it was earlier).
>
> Phsst
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> > <I have solved the universal market prediction problem for all
markets
> > for all time.>
> >
> > No kidding...
> >
> > Pal... Your talents might be wasted here. This is an AB related
forum
> > where the rest of us are focused upon AB and its capabilities.
> >
> > Unlike you, I have NOT solved the universal market predition
problem
> > for all markets for all time, and your previous posts don't seem
to
> > indicate that you are willing to share your secrets related to
this
> > interesting subject (other than it is moving average based).
> >
> > As I recall, you started this thread out by hero worshiping Larry
> > Williams, only to make an amazing revelation that you have this
> > universally capable predictive system of your own in place.
> >
> > I hope you are getting something positive out of this... (I'm
not).
> >
> > Phsst
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand" <palsanand@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > Hi,
> > >
> > > > If I discover a good system to trade the S&P futures, I will
> > > certainly not
> > > > toss it aside if it performs poorly on Soy Beans. Generalize
this
> > > to any
> > > > two markets. It only takes a few good trading system /
market
> > > combinations
> > > > to be a winning trader. There is no need to solve the
universal
> > > market
> > > > prediction problem for all markets for all time.
> > >
> > > Maybe you would not toss it away, but I would. I have solved
the
> > > universal market prediction problem for all markets for all
time.
> > >
> > > > To use the breakout system you mention specifically, breakout
> > > systems used
> > > > to work very well on futures; they now work poorly on
futures; they
> > > do not
> > > > work at all on most stocks. Please code up an example
breakout
> > > system in
> > > > afl, run it on futures data from 1970 on and on stock data.
If you
> > > find
> > > > something good, report it back to us all.
> > >
> > > I have used breakout systems (not the specific one in the
example)
> > > successfully regardless of the type of market and I don't have
time
> > > to do the experiment you suggested...
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Pal
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: palsanand [mailto:palsanand@x...]
> > > > Sent: Monday, October 20, 2003 8:43 AM
> > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Objective functions (was RE: [amibroker] Re:
Optimization -
> > > - again)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi,
> > > >
> > > > In my mind, curve fitting means either using different
systems for
> > > > different markets, or using different parameters of the same
system
> > > > for different markets, and this is not valid technical
analysis.
> > > >
> > > > Historical testing via computer means feeding a set of
numbers
> > > (open,
> > > > ow, close prices), and receiving back an output set of rules
that
> > > > hopefully will make money trading. The numbers themselves do
not
> > > have
> > > > names, and the computer doesn't recognize the difference
> > > > between 'Beans' or 'Bonds'. For a system to be valid, it must
work
> > > on
> > > > all numbers tested, not just those with certain names and not
> > > others
> > > > with different names.
> > > >
> > > > If a system works on Bonds and not on Beans, this system is
curve
> > > > fitted over a specific set of data (Bonds) and it loses all
> > > > statistical validity. To believe it will work in the future
as it
> > > has
> > > > worked in the past is very dangerous.
> > > >
> > > > Also, different markets do not have different personalities.
Again,
> > > > they are reduced to just being a set of numbers or a bunch of
> > > > algorithms. If a channel breakout (or any other) method is
> > > > successful, then the same parameter must be used for all the
> > > markets,
> > > > for the same reasons as above. You cannot use a 20-day
channel in
> > > > Silver and a 40-day channel in Corn, this also falls under
the
> > > crime
> > > > of curve fitting.
> > > >
> > > > I therefore take exception to any system, that either only
trades
> > > one
> > > > specific market or group of markets, or trades different
markets
> > > > using different parameters or rules of the same system. All
this
> > > > proves is what has worked best in the past, and this will
usually
> > > not
> > > > continue to work in the future, as there is no correlation
under
> > > this
> > > > scenario.
> > > >
> > > > This is not specifically written to condemn vendors. This is
a
> > > > clarification of my definitions of 'optimizing' and 'curve
> > > fitting',
> > > > and a warning as to what types of trading systems may be
valid and
> > > > what to stay away from.
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > >
> > > > Pal
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > <<<<<<<<< SNIP >>>>>>>>>>>>>
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