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<I have solved the universal market prediction problem for all markets
for all time.>
No kidding...
Pal... Your talents might be wasted here. This is an AB related forum
where the rest of us are focused upon AB and its capabilities.
Unlike you, I have NOT solved the universal market predition problem
for all markets for all time, and your previous posts don't seem to
indicate that you are willing to share your secrets related to this
interesting subject (other than it is moving average based).
As I recall, you started this thread out by hero worshiping Larry
Williams, only to make an amazing revelation that you have this
universally capable predictive system of your own in place.
I hope you are getting something positive out of this... (I'm not).
Phsst
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand" <palsanand@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi,
>
> > If I discover a good system to trade the S&P futures, I will
> certainly not
> > toss it aside if it performs poorly on Soy Beans. Generalize this
> to any
> > two markets. It only takes a few good trading system / market
> combinations
> > to be a winning trader. There is no need to solve the universal
> market
> > prediction problem for all markets for all time.
>
> Maybe you would not toss it away, but I would. I have solved the
> universal market prediction problem for all markets for all time.
>
> > To use the breakout system you mention specifically, breakout
> systems used
> > to work very well on futures; they now work poorly on futures; they
> do not
> > work at all on most stocks. Please code up an example breakout
> system in
> > afl, run it on futures data from 1970 on and on stock data. If you
> find
> > something good, report it back to us all.
>
> I have used breakout systems (not the specific one in the example)
> successfully regardless of the type of market and I don't have time
> to do the experiment you suggested...
>
> Regards,
>
> Pal
>
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: palsanand [mailto:palsanand@x...]
> > Sent: Monday, October 20, 2003 8:43 AM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Objective functions (was RE: [amibroker] Re: Optimization -
> - again)
> >
> >
> >
> > Hi,
> >
> > In my mind, curve fitting means either using different systems for
> > different markets, or using different parameters of the same system
> > for different markets, and this is not valid technical analysis.
> >
> > Historical testing via computer means feeding a set of numbers
> (open,
> > ow, close prices), and receiving back an output set of rules that
> > hopefully will make money trading. The numbers themselves do not
> have
> > names, and the computer doesn't recognize the difference
> > between 'Beans' or 'Bonds'. For a system to be valid, it must work
> on
> > all numbers tested, not just those with certain names and not
> others
> > with different names.
> >
> > If a system works on Bonds and not on Beans, this system is curve
> > fitted over a specific set of data (Bonds) and it loses all
> > statistical validity. To believe it will work in the future as it
> has
> > worked in the past is very dangerous.
> >
> > Also, different markets do not have different personalities. Again,
> > they are reduced to just being a set of numbers or a bunch of
> > algorithms. If a channel breakout (or any other) method is
> > successful, then the same parameter must be used for all the
> markets,
> > for the same reasons as above. You cannot use a 20-day channel in
> > Silver and a 40-day channel in Corn, this also falls under the
> crime
> > of curve fitting.
> >
> > I therefore take exception to any system, that either only trades
> one
> > specific market or group of markets, or trades different markets
> > using different parameters or rules of the same system. All this
> > proves is what has worked best in the past, and this will usually
> not
> > continue to work in the future, as there is no correlation under
> this
> > scenario.
> >
> > This is not specifically written to condemn vendors. This is a
> > clarification of my definitions of 'optimizing' and 'curve
> fitting',
> > and a warning as to what types of trading systems may be valid and
> > what to stay away from.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Pal
> >
> >
> >
> > <<<<<<<<< SNIP >>>>>>>>>>>>>
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