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Hi Fred,
Monday, October 20, 2003, 7:34:28 AM, you wrote:
F> Yuki,
F> Although for the most part I wouldn't argue what a lot of what you've
F> said, if the markets are ignoring fundamentals and technicals what's
F> left ?
Gosh that's a good question. <g> Just the minuscule scalping that
can be done profitably only by huge transactions maybe, or maybe as
you seem to suggest below, and as I somewhat agree, capitalizing on
inefficiencies that result from massive trading without regard to
fundamentals or technicals.
F> Additionally, I'm not at all sure that I want the efficiency that you
F> think is missing to return as the lack of it makes for the largest
F> opportunities IMO.
To a large extent this is true as well. Has anybody done any studies
on volatility over the past few years? I'm sure it's up here in
Tokyo, although I can't strictly prove it. But where there is
volatility there is opportunity, and risk in equal measure, of
course. Maybe the volatility is a sign that larger inefficiencies
are being created with these programs, and that they then do adjust.
I don't know.
But certainly these programs have changed, at least to some degree,
the character of world markets in the past few years. When an ever
increasing number of shares are being traded without any
consideration of their individual values, but only on consideration
of what the market as a whole is doing, or on consideration of some
index, that is market behavior change in my book.
Yuki
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