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[amibroker] Re: OT Forex for the sublimely naive



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Steve,

Thanks for reminding me.  I'm a great fan of Ayn Rand.  I have 
read "Atlas Shrugged" many times...  I have read all of her books...  
Glad to hear that you have read her books too...  

I use some of CCT indicators,  CCT StochRSI (great indicator).  I 
have recently added the formula some call the Karnish system 
described in the Optimization seminar...  It is useful to me in some 
circumstances...

Regards,

Pal

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "CedarCreekTrading" <kernish@xxxx> 
wrote:
> You are calling the whole world a fool, every time 
> you buy and sell...
> 
> Pal,
> 
> I have a different opinion:
> 
> The symbol of all relationships among such men, the moral symbol of 
respect for human beings, is the trader.  We, who live by values, not 
by loot, are traders, both in manner and spirit.  A trader is a man 
who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved.  A 
trader does not ask to be paid for his failure, he does not ask to be 
loved for his flaws.  A trader does not squander his body as fodder, 
or his soul as alms.  Just as he does not give his work except in 
trade for material values, so he does not give the values of his 
spirit -- his love, his friendship, his esteem - except in payment 
and in trade for human virtue, in payment for his own selfish 
pleasure, which he receives from men he can respect.  The mystic 
parasites who have, throughout the ages, reviled the trader and held 
him in contempt, while honoring beggars and looters, have known the 
secret motive of their sneers:  a trader is an entity they dread - a 
man of justice.
> 
> Ayn Rand
>   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   From: palsanand 
>   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
>   Sent: Wednesday, October 08, 2003 8:07 PM
>   Subject: [amibroker] Re: OT Forex for the sublimely naive
> 
> 
>   Hi,
> 
>   > 
>   > First of all, to address the claim that you cannot lose more 
than
>   > your investment in Forex trading:  Pure, unadulterated horse 
hockey.
>   > 
>   > I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I am positive that 
you
>   > can lose more than your initial investment on ANY leveraged 
play. I
>   > am 100 percent positive that if you look at the fine print on 
your
>   > brokerage contract, you will see something along the order 
of: "will
>   > **attempt** to liquidate your position should your equity value
>   > suddenly break certain levels", zero being the last ditch, they 
will
>   > first have a level for a "margin call" and another level for a
>   > liquidation below that. Note however, that it will NOT always be
>   > possible to get you out at a price that ensures you do not 
>   experience
>   > negative equity, and further note that your brokerage does NOT 
for
>   > one hot second intend to take a hit on a position you created 
if it
>   > goes against you so suddenly that your equity becomes negative.
>   > Believe me, they intend to come after you for the balance; I'm 
>   *sure*
>   > it's in the fine-print of your contract (if not the bold-
print); and
>   > yes you CAN lose your house.  Will you lose it?  Probably not. 
But
>   > you can, or at least you can take a hit far in excess of what 
you
>   > planned to risk, and you should not be deceived about that. 
Enough
>   > said on that.
> 
>   Your broker does not take you out of the market, but the trading 
>   platform software does.  It takes you out (closes all positions) 
when 
>   you do not have sufficient margin (Guaranteed, rest assured).
> 
>   > 
>   > Next, the joys and perils of leverage:
>   > 
>   > It is, as most of you know, a very sharp double-edged sword.  
When
>   > you are right, it is a gains multiplier.  When you are wrong 
>   however,
>   > it is a loss multiplier IN EXACTLY THE SAME PROPORTION. There 
is no
>   > way I know of to have the potential for huge gains, without also
>   > having the potential for huge losses.  Anyone who suggests 
otherwise
>   > is either sublimely naive or has an agenda, IMNSHO.
> 
>   Sometimes, you have to have narrow stops, sometimes wide stops 
and 
>   sometimes no stops (combine options with the straight underlying 
>   instrument) to Cut losses short and Let profits run.
> 
>   > 
>   > Finally, a bit of a historical note:
>   > 
>   > I have been around for some unreal yen/dollar moves.  I have 
seen 
>   the
>   > trends reverse on a dime, with explosions in the other 
direction 
>   that
>   > will rattle your teeth and turn your position to ashes, 
especially a
>   > leveraged position. Take a look for example (and this is a 
rather
>   > mild one) at the "trending move" in late 2001 that took the yen 
from
>   > about 120 up to about 135 very suddenly.  Then look at the yen 
at 
>   120
>   > 6 months later going the other way.  These things are just as 
tricky
>   > to time as stocks or futures or you name it.  They are not one 
bit
>   > "easier", and if they were, so many sharp people would 
immediately
>   > come into the market that any "easiness" would soon vanish as 
the
>   > sharpies started dueling with each other.  Do not be deceived 
about
>   > this for one second.
>   > 
>   > None of this is a plea to avoid the currency markets.  They can 
be
>   > traded, and they can be traded successfully.  They are not 
casinos
>   > where the odds have been turned in favor of the players, 
however.
>   > They are dangerous places where very sharp people hang out, 
people
>   > (not to mention central banks that can print fiat currency at 
will)
>   > with REAL CASH in quantities that can OVERWHELM your puny little
>   > high-leverage position.  They are just waiting for you to make 
a 
>   tiny
>   > little mistake, believe me.  Keep that in mind, and you can 
probably
>   > play (somewhat) safely.
>   > 
>   > Okay, I said my piece.  Back to work everyone.  ^_^
>   > 
>   > Yuki
> 
>   Well,  I don't just trade because I'm smart, but because I'm the 
>   smartest man in the world...  That is exactly what you say every 
time 
>   you buy and sell;  You are calling the whole world a fool, every 
time 
>   you buy and sell...  That you bought or sold the underlying 
>   instrument (whether stocks, bonds or futures or FOREX) before 
>   everybody else did...  Trading is the most ARROGANT thing a human 
>   being can do...  If you want to make money trading, don't be just 
>   arrogant, be smart too...
> 
>   Regards,
> 
>   Pal
> 
> 
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