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I want to backtest a system (regular backtest, not rotational)
which has the following two parts:
1. A simple market timing signal - let's say:
RUT = <FONT
color=#0000ff>Foreign("^RUT", <FONT
color=#ff00ff>"C");
UpTrend = <FONT
color=#0000ff>EMA(RUT, 4) > <FONT
color=#0000ff>EMA(RUT, 11);
2. A scoring system. I want the scoring system to be based on
the 'performance' of the same market timing system. Say on 12/31/1997 the
market timing signal indicates a buy condition. I run a simple backtest of 1
year duration on the 100 stocks in the Nasdaq100, like so:
RUT = <FONT
color=#0000ff>Foreign("^RUT", <FONT
color=#ff00ff>"C");
UpTrend = <FONT
color=#0000ff>EMA(RUT, 4) > <FONT
color=#0000ff>EMA(RUT, 11);
buy=Uptrend;
sell=NOT uptrend;
I pick the 5 best performing stocks (say highest CAR) and use
them going forward into 1998, until the market timing signal gives a sell
indication, when I sell the 5 stocks. At the next market timing buy signal, I
again pick the top 5 performers (using the simple backtest) over the past year.
etc. etc.
It seems like some sort of feedback system.
Is it possible?
Steve
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