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Mr X. does not trade Nasdaq100.
It is a tough market [for him]
After reading many AFL codes for N100, he made the great
step.
He bought the market by the beginning of this year.[Jan2,
2003]
The first local peak [Jan14] was more than enough to feel the
fear of the decline and he decided to sell everything.
But, a net +4% profit in 8 days was very sweet [for
him]
So, he decided to trade this [tough] market and make some
money...
He does not trust systems/codes and all this complicated
stuff.
He trusts numbers [only].
So, after a dialogue with himself, he decided to buy every 16
days and sell every 40 days.
The only explanation was that the cycle will be small
[5*16=80, 2*40=80] and, if things go wrong, he could stop the game
soon.
[The 7-13 combination was also attractive but the cycle would
be longer...]
His "code" is
SetTradeDelays(1<FONT
size=2>,1,<FONT
size=2>1,1<FONT
size=2>);
BuyPrice=Open;
SellPrice=Close;
STARTBUY=DateNum()==<FONT
size=2>1030102;
STARTSELL=DateNum()==1030114;
Buy=BarsSince(STARTBuy)%16==0;
Sell=BarsSince(STARTSell)%40==0;
Short=Sell;Cover=Buy;
His system is the break even of any statistics, scientific or
not.
He was profitable 99% [CEPH was the only black broadtail
sheep]
The total net profit [till now] was plus 70% [commission
0.25%]
He will be [permanently] out of the market in 10
days.
The reason is simple : Before this experiment, he was happy to
gain a +5% per year.
[some low risk investments]
Now, he made the money for about 12 years [1.05^12=1.79] and
there are many other interesting things to do as life goes on.
On the other side, it is boring [he said] to buy every 16 and
sell every 40 days.
Especially when he understood Exrem() function and was obliged
to skip some buys.
He noticed also 11/101 stocks with the ideal
8trades/8winners/0losers.
The market index ^NDX was one of them.
He tried to manage some thoughts about the "rhythm" of the
market but it was too much for him.
Dimitris Tsokakis
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