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<BLOCKQUOTE
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<SPAN
>I have bitten my
tongue with the strategy talk that is posted where everyone seems to go ga-ga
over high percent returns over the last $B!D(B. er $B!D(B.6 months$B!D(Band some even test
back into 2002!!!! No mention of drawdowns, little mention of
compound annual return, and much of it handled via very complex Excel
worksheets, rather than something like AB. <SPAN
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<SPAN
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class=023373705-01102003>agreed, TA in
excel is no way to go. way too hard to build and test new ideas on a wide range
of issues, plus can't imagine any of those big nasty sheets are
error-free...
<SPAN
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<BLOCKQUOTE
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<SPAN
>As I am trying to
test some of these VV stock selections, I need to see how and if it is
possible to test back several years, at least to 1998. I know I can buy
back data, but the backtesting system with VV (which is what you need to use
in order to test their parameters) is terrible and a backtest from 1998 would
surely put me to sleep.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Ken<SPAN
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<SPAN
><SPAN
class=023373705-01102003>well, it's true, the vv backtest facility is extremely
un-automated, to put it kindly. what I do mostly is QuickTests. assemble a set
of promising dates, and you can run a bunch of strategies you want to test
against one date, then run them all against the next date, etc, and that goes
pretty quickly. relatively quickly, I should say. it's actually most efficeint
to work backwards from the most recent date, so vv doesn't keep resetting the
end date to today, since it's now after the new start date. (not sure if that
made sense written, but try it both directions, you'll see what I mean.)
<SPAN
><SPAN
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<SPAN
><SPAN
class=023373705-01102003>the thing QuickTests don't account for, or help you
plan for, is handling a longer-term signal where some trades, both profitable
and not, get stopped out. do you keep buying new stuff, right up to the opposing
signal? leave those positions open? this is another aspect of timing and money
management that needs to get sorted. FWIW, recent markets also make me question
whether a timing plan that only knows about long and short can be right. surely
there are times uncertain enough to make cash your best bet, but that's not
typically part of the general VV mindset I think.
<SPAN
><SPAN
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<SPAN
><SPAN
class=023373705-01102003>I also think that if the idea is to identify and trade
in the direction of general market trends, VV is no way to work on that. reading
dates off charts, eyballing tops and bottoms, just crazy. better to work in AB,
and find methods that test well against a representative index, or watchlist
average, etc, then go back to VV with those dates and test your strategies
against them.
<SPAN
><SPAN
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<SPAN
><SPAN
class=023373705-01102003>that's been my main direction of inquiry for a while
now, but I can't say I've found a holy grail of timing that feels like more than
a curve fit. I've been wondering what'd happen if I just took some of the usual
suspect indicators, on some usual suspect index, and did the QuickTest thing in
VV with some known good strategies. the point isn't whether the timing does well
buying indexes, it's how VV strategies do with it, and the best ones do
seem pretty profitable. still hard to know you're not dealing with curve fits
there too though...
<SPAN
><SPAN
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<SPAN
><SPAN
class=023373705-01102003>do I maybe remember you from new england VV mtgs? if
so, and you're coming thursday, I'll see you there.
<SPAN
><SPAN
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<SPAN
><SPAN
class=023373705-01102003>I'm babbling on here, bed...
<SPAN
><SPAN
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<SPAN
><SPAN
class=023373705-01102003>dave
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