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<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff
size=2>am I understanding you to be saying that the main way you optimize is to
confine relatively static scans to a watchlist of things that have been
performing well lately with your system?
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>
yep...lately meaning
approximately a year
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Dave Merrill
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, September 29, 2003 1:16
PM
Subject: RE: [amibroker]
Optimize/OverOptimize
<SPAN
class=616475318-29092003>thanks for answering steve, and apologies for asking
you to interpret dave's stuff. you were handy (:-)... I'll post anything
interesting if dave is able to reply.
<SPAN
class=616475318-29092003>
<SPAN
class=616475318-29092003>I agree in principle that constant adjustment is the
way to go. I just posted a long msg to the VectorVest group to the effect
that real life effectively *is* a walk-forward optimization. any parameters
you're presented with today result from tests on earlier data, not some
eternal truth, and this process of evolution can't stop.
<SPAN
class=616475318-29092003>
<SPAN
class=616475318-29092003>am I understanding you to be saying that the main way
you optimize is to confine relatively static scans to a watchlist of things
that have been performing well lately with your system? it's interesting, I
was working on a system that appeared to do much better than average over a
wide range of issues, and the best predictor of future success I found was
past success. had to trash it because it turned out the nice returns were due
to accidentally peeking into the future a bit, but the optimization principle
made a lot of sense to me.
<SPAN
class=616475318-29092003>
<SPAN
class=616475318-29092003>thanks again,
<SPAN
class=616475318-29092003>
<SPAN
class=616475318-29092003>dave
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Arial
size=2><FONT face="Courier New"
color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>- the parameters I get optimizing today compensate
for transient market behaviors that will eventually end, and eventually it
will do very poorly. but if those behaviors persist, at least somewhat,
for a little while, might the system to do better than average in the short
term? if so, is constant re-optimization worth
exploring?
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003><SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>Lot's of things to
consider here. This is probably the real "meat" of the optimizing
issue. One of the biggies is the number of variables when you conduct
your optimizations. The fewer the variables, the less chance that
eventually an approach will do poorly.
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003><SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>The equity and
commodity markets are not horse races: these "bets" are not
handicapped with assigned odds. Seems to me that since all the horses
in the race are "even-money", one should chart the "form" and only bet on
the ponies that have performed the best (over the most recent period of
time).
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003><SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>Expecting a
particular stock to test well with data from 1997 is foolish.
Expecting a particular system to trade well in 1997 is not foolish.
Issues fall into and out of patterns of accumulation and
distribution. Sometimes, supply and demand takes a trip
down "random walk street". I think it makes sense, if you have a
sound approach to the markets, to concentrate on "ranking" issues based on
return. If you concentrate your efforts on selecting issues that have
consistently performed with your systems parameters, the odds favor
continued consistency. If supply and demand changes it's character for
a particular issue...you must stop trading it.
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003><SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>I believe, constant
reoptimization is the way to go. What is the definition
of constant? For me, I reoptimize every quarter. Most of
the time, reoptimization does not mean a reassignment of triggers or
filters. Most of the time, it means adjusting WHAT I'm trading (adding
and subtracting issues in my universe)...not HOW I'm trading.
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003><SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>Please share if Dave
responds to your questions,
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003><SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>Take
care,
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003><SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>
<SPAN
class=626242917-29092003><SPAN
class=626242917-29092003>SteveSend
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