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RE: [amibroker] Optimize/OverOptimize



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<SPAN 
class=616475318-29092003>thanks for answering steve, and apologies for asking 
you to interpret dave's stuff. you were handy (:-)... I'll post anything 
interesting if dave is able to reply.
<SPAN 
class=616475318-29092003> 
<SPAN 
class=616475318-29092003>I agree in principle that constant adjustment is the 
way to go. I just posted a long msg to the VectorVest group to the effect 
that real life effectively *is* a walk-forward optimization. any parameters 
you're presented with today result from tests on earlier data, not some eternal 
truth, and this process of evolution can't stop.
<SPAN 
class=616475318-29092003> 
<SPAN 
class=616475318-29092003>am I understanding you to be saying that the main way 
you optimize is to confine relatively static scans to a watchlist of things that 
have been performing well lately with your system? it's interesting, I was 
working on a system that appeared to do much better than average over a wide 
range of issues, and the best predictor of future success I found was past 
success. had to trash it because it turned out the nice returns were due to 
accidentally peeking into the future a bit, but the optimization principle made 
a lot of sense to me.
<SPAN 
class=616475318-29092003> 
<SPAN 
class=616475318-29092003>thanks again,
<SPAN 
class=616475318-29092003> 
<SPAN 
class=616475318-29092003>dave
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  <FONT face=Arial 
  size=2><FONT face="Courier New" 
  color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003>- the parameters I get optimizing today compensate 
  for transient market behaviors that will eventually end, and eventually it 
  will do very poorly. but if those behaviors persist, at least somewhat, 
  for a little while, might the system to do better than average in the short 
  term? if so, is constant re-optimization worth 
  exploring?
  
  
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003><SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003>Lot's of things to 
  consider here.  This is probably the real "meat" of the optimizing 
  issue.  One of the biggies is the number of variables when you conduct 
  your optimizations.  The fewer the variables, the less chance that 
  eventually an approach will do poorly.  
  
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003><SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003>The equity and 
  commodity markets are not horse races:  these "bets" are not handicapped 
  with assigned odds.  Seems to me that since all the horses in the race 
  are "even-money", one should chart the "form" and only bet on the ponies that 
  have performed the best (over the most recent period of time).  
  
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003><SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003>Expecting a particular 
  stock to test well with data from 1997 is foolish.  Expecting a 
  particular system to trade well in 1997 is not foolish.  Issues fall into 
  and out of patterns of accumulation and distribution.  Sometimes, 
  supply and demand takes a trip down "random walk street".  I 
  think it makes sense, if you have a sound approach to the markets, to 
  concentrate on "ranking" issues based on return.  If you concentrate your 
  efforts on selecting issues that have consistently performed with your systems 
  parameters, the odds favor continued consistency.  If supply and demand 
  changes it's character for a particular issue...you must stop trading 
  it.  
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003><SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003>I believe, constant 
  reoptimization is the way to go.  What is the definition 
  of constant?  For me, I reoptimize every quarter.  Most of the 
  time, reoptimization does not mean a reassignment of triggers or 
  filters.  Most of the time, it means adjusting WHAT I'm trading (adding 
  and subtracting issues in my universe)...not HOW I'm trading.  
  
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003><SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003>Please share if Dave 
  responds to your questions,
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003><SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003>Take 
  care,
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003><SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003> 
  <SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003><SPAN 
  class=626242917-29092003>Steve






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