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Dave,Although I have "knocked back beers" with Tim many times, he
has neveroffered a systematic approach that incorporates the T3. In
fact, for muchof the last 18 months, Tim has played with the StoRSI (which
the FortCollins group has tagged: "the Karnish System"). Loosely
interpreted, it isa stochastically modified, momentum
oscillator. He spent a lot of timetweaking the variables of the
formula and optimizing the trigger levels.I have teased Tim and Dave
during the last year and called them a bunch of"beer-guzzling,
over-optimizers". All in good fun. They are much brighterthan I
could ever aspire to. In fact, Dave is going to speak this month,
tothe Denver Trading Group, on the pitfalls of over-optimizing. He and
Timdid exactly that with the simple StoRSI approach to
theQQQ's...over-optimized. They have taken the StoRSI and
substitutedoptimized variables in the formula.When I offered the
StoRSI, systematic approach, to the their group, inDecember of '01, I
suggested applying it to the QQQ's with a 13 and 87trigger. I also
suggested applying a trend qualifier.Recently, Herman sent me a nice
"picture" of the results of this system (onthe QQQ's) with a 21sma as the
trade qualifier. Maybe he can post theequity graph for the
group. I think the AFL library has all the
bloodydetails: // Steve Karnish
StoRSIStochRsi=EMA((RSI(8)-LLV(RSI(8),8))/(HHV(RSI(8),8)-LLV(RSI(8),8)),3)*100;Buy=Cross(17,StochRsi)
AND Ref(MA(C,21),-1) <
MA(C,21);;Sell=Cross(StochRsi,83);Short=Cross(StochRsi,83) AND
Ref(MA(C,21),-1) > MA(C,21);Cover=Cross(17,StochRsi);There seems
to be a misconception among technical traders that "quicker is,indeed,
better". Quicker is better only if it leads to a smoother and
saferequity curves. There is no doubt that Tim and Jurik have
developed somesensitive indicators. Neither has incorporated them into
trading systems(as far as I know).As you are aware, many indicators
are helpful in the hands of a disciplined"artist" that can apply them to
markets to make subjective decisions. SinceI don't trust myself to
interpret "wiggles", I lean more toward formulaethat can be slammed into
objective approaches that can be backtested (in andout of sample).I
appreciate vendors like Fitchen (Aberration) that can produce
aindependently, verifiable track record. At least when you plunk your
moneydown, you know what has occurred during the last five years. I am
lessexcited about vendors who peddled subjective tools that are left to
thebuyers discretion (to be applied to markets). $300 for a black box
formulais not something I'm going to spend my money for.For that
matter, I have 100 formulas that I will sell you for $3 each (or $3for all
of them). There's quite a difference between a "formula" and
a"systematic approach". Do you want "tools" or do you want "tools
andrules"? Building the "grail" starts with a reliable indicator
(there aredozens). This is only the starting point. I get
excited when someonebuilds the entire mousetrap.I will contact Tim
and ask him for examples (besides the public articles) ofhow to incorporate
the T3 into a trading approach. Jurik's work is floatingaround and I'm
sure someone can comment on how to apply his indicators.
Trysuper-imposing a 10 period ema on top of the Jurik or Tillson work (hard
totell the difference). I believe Perry Kaufman turned me on to
it. Keep inmind, there is a lot of good stuff for free.Take
care,Steve
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