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I agree. Extended periods of "trend" will kill most swing trading systems.
This is not a system. Beginning around the first of the year, I started
superimposing the Krausz code on the Dow Futures(March, June and Sept
contracts). After observing for a while, I decided to present the idea to
the Denver Trading Group. At a two-hour presentation, one of my topics was
the Krausz bands. I suggested that if you sold the red zone (on the
opening) and bought the blue zone (if price opens in the range) that you
could cover on the close and maybe make a dollar or two.
Many people took the code and substituted the numbers to arrive at "bands"
that suited their style. Bravo! That's what I was hoping for: research
synergy. These arbitrary, and very prejudiced assignments of .55 and .89
are my sinful superstitions about Fibonacci numbers...someday, I may get
over it.
Since that seminar (early March), if the opening falls in either range, I
email the Mechanical Traders forum with a Zone Alert. Attached are copies
of the typical chart that I send. This "approach" didn't trade for almost
four weeks (most of July), but the last three trades have contributed +172
Dow points.
I find this crude, but interesting. The important thing is that Bill asked
for comments on price channels. I think these are interesting. If you do
tally the score from the beginning of the year...you will be shocked. Would
this approach perform well in a trending market? Of course not. But hey,
this isn't 1998. It helps to be adaptable. Some "book writers" think we
might chop sideways for the next 5 to 8 years. If we chop for a few more
years, this should continue to do fairly well.
I like things that are simple. All my "stuff" has become less complicated
during the last five years. Hopefully, people will take DT's code, slap it
into AB, change the numbers, make up different rules and make a fortune (and
we won't hear from them again). Whatever the code is, one thing for sure:
it's a fun template.
Take care,
Steve
----- Original Message -----
From: "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, August 13, 2003 2:49 PM
Subject: [amibroker] Re:Price Channels
> Steve,
> Yes the white candles are up candles, but, the last 5 signals[green
> arrows] are only Buy signals, no Sell signal the last two months.
> This fact as is would cause much trouble, if not combined with other
> signals.
> The same behavior was detected during long bearish periods : Cascade
> Sell signals without any Buy to close the trade.
> I have no intention to spend your time, just give my first
> observations on the code.
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "CedarCreekTrading" <kernish@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > 5 consequtive desperate Buys from midJune till now.!!!
> >
> > DT,
> >
> > I will dig up the old charts (if I can find them). I am a bit
> confused: your chart would suggest that 4 of the last 5 trades are
> winners (aren't the white candles "up" days).
> >
> > Anyway, as I posted, I combined Krausz channels with a Stochastic
> RSI. It worked well for a couple of years until oats almost tripled
> in a year. I'll try to dig up the actual trades during the next few
> days.
> >
> > Take care,
> >
> > Steve
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Dimitris Tsokakis
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Wednesday, August 13, 2003 1:53 PM
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re:Price Channels
> >
> >
> > From: "CedarCreekTrading" <kernish@xxxx>
> > Date: Wed Aug 13, 2003 10:15 pm
> > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Price Channels?
> > ...
> > For a three year period,
> > these channels, combined with a StoRSI made for a very profitable
> approach
> > when trading oats. Don't laugh...money extracted from oats spends
> just as
> > well as money extracted from gold or equities.
> > ...
> >
> > Steve,
> > No problem trading oats/gold/Quenns Crown or anything else.
> > You probably join Zone signals with other T/A info, because, the
> problem [in oats or MSFT] in obvious in the att. gif of DEC oats.
> > Buy at B1, B2 [very good]
> > Sell at S1, S2 [very good, no matter of the small profit, there
> was nothing more to take...]
> > and then, 5 consequtive desperate Buys from midJune till now.!!!
> > Since it is impossible to make money this way, give us a hint of
> the companion signals to have a realistic picture.
> > Dimitris Tsokakis
> > Ps Check my signals with yours to verify we use the same code
>
>
>
> Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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>
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