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Yuki;
For what its worth, I agree with your
comments on the managed Yen.
The reason this is done, is simple, however
(imho). Japan continues to gain technology by its presence in the
International Markets. Even starting to lead in many areas. Tech
means power, prestige and respect.
As long as the Japanese citizen puts up with this,
either because they have no choice, or at least feel they have no choice, this
will continue. And as long as the US can pretend it can do everything, all
the time, forever, it will continue on this side of the Pacific.
Japan views it as economic war, while the US
continues to not pay much attention, as long as the "band continues to
play".
The good news is, this kind of warfare is
much preferably to any other. It is a win-win over the long run, for all
countries.
Richard
Ps; Sorry for the philosophical digression, the
markets are a bit depressing today... 8->
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Yuki
Taga
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Fred
Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2003 5:56
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: DMI question
-- maybe Jayson?
Hi Fred,Wednesday, July 16, 2003, 8:31:38 PM, you
wrote:F> Trading in international markets is getting tougher from a
USF> perspective. Although Europe, UK and Japan indicies have
been upF> wonderfully the last few months, the currencies are being
beatenF> up ( Especially the Euro & BP ) since mid
June.This is certainly a fact, and it's amazing to me that foreigners
havecome in here like this in this situation. Our currency no
longerfloats, contrary to what many would believe. It is now clearly
amanaged currency with dollar peg, enforced by the Bank of Japan.
Theyjust don't admit that publicly, but it is certainly the situation.
Itis also clear that the BoJ will take every opportunity to
*weaken*the currency vis a vis the dollar; only severe dollar weakness
hasprevented this from happening already. So, the foreign
investorhere, especially a US dollar base-currency investor, is looking
atalmost zero chance of currency appreciation, and a darn good
chanceof having a lot of or even all capital appreciation offset
bycurrency risk. The whole thing makes little sense to me, and it
wasone of the reasons I doubted the "foreign" rally here. But in
theyhave come, massively, buying our shares like we have no problems,
andlike there is no risk. I have to assume this is very hot
money. Thecurrency risk is astounding to me right now. If the
US does pull offa strong economic recovery, the dollar should cease
falling versusthe Euro. That would be enough to send it higher against the
yen I'msure. Some folks could see their capital gains here evaporate
fromcurrency risk very quickly. The BoJ is not about to defend the
yenfrom a 20 or 30 percent fall against the dollar, should that
happen.And in the past, these sea changes have taken place all of a
sudden,in a matter of a few
days.Best,YukiSend
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