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Hello,
I'm a bit confused about calculating Expectancy & Kelly's formula for
position sizing.
For example, let's say you have trading system which has the
following stats:
% wins: 65%
% losses: 35%
win/loss ratio: 1.89
avg win %: 2.11%
avg loss %: -3.98%
avg win: $58
avg loss: -$67
For Kelly's formula, I've seen two versions which give different
results:
1. 0.66 - (1-0.65)/1.89 = 47%
or
2. 1.89-(1-1.89)/2.11 = 44%
Which one is right ?
For expectancy, how should it be calculated ?
1. (0.65*2.11)-(0.35*3.98)= -2.2%
or
2. (0.65*58)-(0.35*67)=$15.14 then 15.14/67= 23%
Which one is right ?
Thanks,
HB
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