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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi kk,
>
> Thursday, July 3, 2003, 3:46:31 PM, you wrote:
>
> k> Yuki,
>
> k> Is it the euphoria stage now or just the beginning of a bull ?
Right here
> k> the KLCI up for more than 18 points which I have not seen that
for years in
> k> the first half session. But it scares the futures boys -
extremely volatile.
>
> You are asking me? ^_- Really, I don't know.
>
> But it doesn't matter what I think. You are either a technician or
a
> fundamentalist. I am a technician. I will do what the market
> commands me to do, based on price and volume. When it gets
> absolutely beyond a question nuts, as it was today, I try and stand
> aside a bit (notice I was not successful in that attempt today, but
I
> took a very short, calculated risk at the end of the day, when a lot
> of other wits were surely somewhat dulled by the shock of what was
> transpiring today).
>
> A key, I think, is not mistaking just nuts, which is not all that
> uncommon -- in fact it's regular market fare -- with absolutely
> beyond a question nuts, like our 400 point adventure today was. We
> had a buy-side panic this morning. There is no other way to describe
> it. And after about an hour the people that paid through the nose to
> buy on the open suddenly realized there was almost nobody in line
> behind them, at least not today. So then we had a sell-side panic.
> If this was a movie theater everyone would have been trampled
getting
> in, and then trampled again trying to get out. What a riot.
>
> That . . . is absolutely nuts. But . . . I could not have
guaranteed
> it was absolutely nuts on the open -- just plain-vanilla nuts. ^_^
> It only became obvious as the day progressed. But as the morning
> wore on, it was clear this was not a market to participate in on
> either side right now, unless you enjoy sudden stunning intraday
> reversals against whatever position you take. I did not enter until
> a *lot* of energy had been dissipated.
>
> I can't say if other markets have gone so nuts yet. I can't say we
> have reached any intermediate limit here either, but the signs today
> were not good. The market hit a very big air pocket today. The
> airliner is still flying, but a lot of drinks were spilled, and the
> passengers have suddenly taken their seats and fastened their belts.
> Many stopped smiling, and others were looking out the windows to see
> if there might be any terrain obstructions nearby. ^^_^^
>
> In my opinion, the odds of a prolonged vigorous bull market from
this
> level upwards are not very good right now. But I have been proven
> wrong many times.
My opinion is worthless.
Yuki,
donīt say that again, your opinion [at least for me] is worthy and
respectable [no matter if we agree or not, of course...]
DT
So I have given up basing
> my investment decisions on my opinions as much as is humanly
> possible. Along this line, I am trying more and more to build an
> impenetrable barrier between myself and the purveyors of market
> opinion -- the so-called experts.
>
> Think about this . . .
>
> If all of us had turned off the TV, stopped reading the newspaper,
> the Internet, or any other source of economic news or opinion. If
we
> just tuned into our trading screens each day and looked at our
charts
> that night, all of this from about March 1, where would we be right
> now? My guess is that without *any* external noise, opinions,
> prognostications, headlines -- without ALL of it -- all of us would
> have done much better.
>
> So don't ask me for my opinion. ^^_^^ You'll get one, but it will
> be as worthless as anyone else's that you read or listen to.
>
> And about the difference between a bull and euphoria: It doesn't
> matter. Euphoria can be just as long, and is certainly just as real
> to the people who are experiencing it. There is an assumption by
the
> non-euphoric that the euphoric are suddenly going to snap back to
> sanity, and suddenly see the world the way the non-euphoric sees it.
> These folks holding that assumption are the very same people who
> shorted the Nas at 3000-something . . . on the way up.
>
> There is only trade management, and money management. If you have
> those two down, you can participate in all but the absolutely nuts
> markets.
>
> Yuki
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