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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi guys,
>
> Monday, June 30, 2003, 4:46:44 PM, you wrote:
>
> s> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "mrdavis9" <mrdavis9@xxxx>
wrote:
>
> s> I would appreciate any and all suggestions regarding what
criteria
> s> that I should put into my buy scans that would insure that the
stock
> s> is truly in an uptrend, in order for it to be eligible to
receive
> s> a buy arrow. Regardless of the other suggestions that may be
> s> forthcoming, I still want to test the concept of positive
linear
> s> regression.
> s> =======
>
> s> Can't help you with the regression line, but what was your
reasoning
> s> for avoiding indicators like ADX or Aroon for trending?
>
> Adx measures strength of trend, not direction, of course. With that
> caveat, it sure could be used.
>
> I would chip in here with a loose paraphrase of a comment that I
read
> in a book by Dave Landry some time back. Don't make this very
> complicated at all. Look at the chart, and make a pretty quick
> decision. Basically as I remember it, Dave wrote, "If in any doubt
> [about trend], ask the first 6-year-old child that you see, and go
> with that child's opinion."
>
> That's basically it, silly as it sounds. Choose some simple
criteria
> and plug them in. The only thing you have to basically do is to
> decide how far back you want to look. In my opinion, if it survives
> a retracement or consolidation, then resumes and makes a new
> intermediate high or new intermediate low, it's a trend. This is a
> variation of the old "if it walks like a duck, and quacks like a
> duck, it might very well have a darn good chance of actually being a
> duck" theory. ^^_^^
>
> You could waste eons of time on this and make yourself just short of
> crazy, or even worse. I doubt if it would be worth it. In the end,
> your unasked question is probably, "How long does a trend have to
> persist before it's a *safe trend* that I can get onboard and ride?"
> There is no answer to this question, of course. There is only trade
> management and money management. Any "proven" trend may "un-prove"
> itself immediately after its "proof" has been declared. It's part
of
> the business.
>
> Proof? Sorry, this is raw emotion seasoned with random noise, and a
> dose of manipulation thrown in to keep everyone *really* on their
> toes. This is not geometry class.
>
> Best,
>
> Yuki
Yuki,
There is another [important] issue.
Do we really need a confirmed [accept this word, instead of "proof"]
trend to ride on ?
The usual answer is positive.
I began the presentation of the alternative,
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/43405
because I believe that such alternatives do exist in the market.
A Long only system with similar performance in both bullish/bearish
[confirmed ...afterwards] periods.
Because it is a trading message list and not a geometry class.
I would appreciate your comments on this issue.
As for the Dave´s comment, what would "the first 6-year-old child"
say back in Jan2000 for the present "trend"?
The only thing I know is the this child is 9 years old now, nothing
more...
DT
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