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Dom,
Price Persistency is the number of days that a
market continues to close either up or down. It's another term for a
market run. As an indicator, price persistency is a measure of a very
short term trend based only on the history of the market's movement, unfiltered
by any complex calculation; all it involves is counting.
The advantage of price persistency is in its
simplicity. The market is currently in a run or it isn't. It's either been
down three days in a row or it hasn't.
OverView:
If you look at each day individually, the odds are
nearly 50-50 that the market would be up ( or down ) the next day.
However, as the sequences run in either direction, the likelihood of the run
continuing generally grows smaller.
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I do not follow you with respect to **messing with
the formula**,,,Would you care to share your altered formula...so I may give a
more complete response...
Anthony
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
dom1_1998
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, June 22, 2003 8:28 PM
Subject: [amibroker] Price
Persistency
Hi Anthony:Being totally ignorant of programming I
started messing with yourprice persistency formula. To avoid any
previous numbers being included in the higher numbers Iisolated each
pattern on its own. For example:Symbol !ADR(,qp2 symbol)251 bars
loaded using your formula I get:127 1dayup, 123 1daydn, 67 2dayup, 63
2daydn, 31 3dayup, 30 3daydn,17 4dayup, 12 4daydn and 11 5dayup, 4
5daydn.Isolating each pattern I now get:24 1dayup, 27 1daydn, 22
2dayup, 14 2daydn, 8 3dayup, 10 daydn2 4dayup, 6 4daydn, 1 5dayup, 1
5daydn.This radically reduces the hits. My question is wouldn't
isolating apattern provide a more accurate probability analysis then
having thelower column numbers included in the higher number
columns?JMHO,Dominick
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