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[amibroker] Re: Monte Carlo Simulation - MCS



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Chuck,

I looked at the TradeSim Slide Show. The interface seems to require
Metastock for data and indicator plug-in. So how is the AB backtest
export file interfaced into TradeSim? And does it work without Metastock?

Regards,

Phsst


--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Chuck Rademacher"
<chuck_rademacher@x> wrote:
> If anyone is interested in Monte Carlo Simulation, it is possible to
take
> the backtest output from AB into something called TradeSim which
will give
> you 1,001 reports including a very high-powered MCS capability.   I
probably
> do 20 to 30 MCS runs a day using TradeSim with AB exported data.
> 
> TradeSim is available from:  http://www.compuvision.com.au
> 
> 
>   -----Original Message-----
>   From: markf2 [mailto:feierstein@x...]
>   Sent: Thursday, April 17, 2003 10:55 PM
>   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>   Subject: [amibroker] Re: The request for "variable" period functions
> 
> 
>   And as for MCS, it stands for Monte Carlo Simulation.  MCS can give
>   you a distribution of potential future outcomes if the inputs are
>   representative of how the system will perform in the future.  In broad
>   terms, if the basket of trades from your system test is representative
>   of the system's population of future trades, MCS can calculate a
>   distribution of drawdowns and profits based on 10,000 (or however many
>   you want) different equity curves simulated from that basket of trades
>   given your money management parameters.  From that you can estimate
>   the probabilities of different profit/loss levels.  You can also do
>   this for groups of stocks to make portfolio drawdown and profit/loss
>   distributions.  This is more "forward-looking" and multidimensional
>   than portfolio backtesting and pyramiding on historical quotes.
> 
>   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
>   > The AMA or AMA2 .vs. EMA will give you a simple view of the
>   > differences in potential.
>   >
>   > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa" <advenosa@xxxx> wrote:
>   > > Well, Mark, I have to admit I know nothing about adaptive
>   > indicators, so obviously I haven't ever tested them. In fact, I
don't
>   > even know what an MCS is (I hate acronyms, and I've worked for the
>   > Government all my life!!)! I have tested various position sizing
>   > algorithms, as I'm a firm believer in position sizing as a means of
>   > controlling risk. All I know is that portfolio backtesting and
>   > pyramiding are tops on my wish list and have been ever since I
bought
>   > AB back in Nov of 2001, and judging from many posts in the far and
>   > near past, I think there are lots of others who are anxiously
>   > awaiting this feature, too. Since the topic of adaptive indicators
>   > was only introduced for the first time yesterday, I believe, I was
>   > just thinking that perhaps it hasn't been a top priority on many
>   > people's wish lists. I will gladly concede to you and others if I'm
>   > wrong, since I still consider myself a rank beginner in AFL as well
>   > as trading in general. Tell me more about adaptive indicators and
>   > what their advantages are over static ones. Maybe give some
examples?
>   > Thanks.
>   > >
>   > > Al Venosa
>   > >   ----- Original Message -----
>   > >   From: markf2
>   > >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>   > >   Sent: Thursday, April 17, 2003 9:50 PM
>   > >   Subject: [amibroker] Re: The request for "variable" period
>   > functions
>   > >
>   > >
>   > >   Really?  Have you done much testing with adaptive indicators?
>   > Have
>   > >   you ever tried position sizing with MCS (which is much more
>   > powerful
>   > >   and versatile)?
>   > >
>   > >   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa" <advenosa@xxxx>
>   > wrote:
>   > >   > I wholeheartedly agree with Jerome. Portfolio backtesting and
>   > >   pyramiding, in my opinion, are much more important that
>   > introducing
>   > >   more indicators, dynamic or not. I sure hope this new task, if
>   > >   adopted, does not distract or slow down Tomasz from developing
>   > what I
>   > >   think lots more people wish to have as part of the AB engine. My
>   > >   opinion, FWIW.
>   > >   >
>   > >   > Al Venosa
>   > >   >
>   > >   >   ----- Original Message -----
>   > >   >   From: Silvarius
>   > >   >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>   > >   >   Sent: Thursday, April 17, 2003 4:12 PM
>   > >   >   Subject: RE: [amibroker] The request for "variable" period
>   > functions
>   > >   >
>   > >   >
>   > >   >   I second Dimitris in his Opinion. Portfolio backtesting
>   > >   enhancement is much more critical IMHO.
>   > >   >
>   > >   >   Best regards, Jérôme ULRICH
>   > >   >     -----Message d'origine-----
>   > >   >     De : DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
>   > >   >     Envoyé : jeudi 17 avril 2003 21:41
>   > >   >     À : amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>   > >   >     Objet : [amibroker] The request for "variable" period
>   > functions
>   > >   >
>   > >   >
>   > >   >     Everybody asks for variable period possibilities, as
if AFL
>   > is poor
>   > >   >     in this logic.
>   > >   >     Let us take a closer look :
>   > >   >     Variable Period smoothing functions:
>   > >   >     MA, DEMA, TEMA do accept variable period.
>   > >   >     The remaining EMA can accept through EMA(ARRAY,PER)==AMA
>   > (ARRAY,2/
>   > >   >     (PER+1))
>   > >   >     Is there any other type of smoothing used in your
>   > formulas ???
>   > >   >     RSI works through RSIA, CCI works through CCIA
>   > >   >     MACD through above described EMA.
>   > >   >     What is next?
>   > >   >     How about StochK and StochD with variable per ?
>   > >   >     Perhaps you do not know that you can do it NOW in pure
>   > AFL !!
>   > >   >     The HHV and LLV functions work fine with variable period.
>   > >   >     per=10+cum(1)%20;
>   > >   >     StochKa=MA(100*(C-LLV(L,per))/(HHV(H,per)-LLV(L,per)),3);
>   > >   >     StochDa=MA(MA(100*(C-LLV(L,per))/(HHV(H,per)-LLV
>   > (L,per)),3),3);
>   > >   >     Is ther any other function you would like to see with
>   > variable
>   > >   >     period ?
>   > >   >     Search first the definition and then see if it already
>   > exists in
>   > >   your
>   > >   >     AFL potential.
>   > >   >     It is better to know the definition of a Stochastic,
before
>   > asking
>   > >   >     fast software upgrades-enhanchments.
>   > >   >     In my opinion, the lack of definition will always confuse
>   > the user,
>   > >   >     with fixed or variable period.
>   > >   >     Dimitris Tsokakis
>   > >   >
>   > >   >
>   > >   >
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