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One final comment:
It is late here and this will be my last post for the night (perhaps
for the week).
I posted triple digit trading results for the 'grail' system I've
developed, and I just assumed that others here have achieved better
results from their own trading systems on the 'whole universe of stocks'.
So far, it appears that I may be mistaken.
Seriously... surely many of you have trading systems that perform
better than this. You don't have to divulge any more than you wnat.
Post some results... OK?
Phsst
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> <What's a Pullback ?
> I suspect I know it by a different name, but what is
> a pullback as it relates to your system.
> Is it perhaps a "retracement" ?
> Thanks for you patience..>
>
> Yes, a pullback represents a "retracement".
>
> Use ADX, PDI & MDI to determine the current trend, then look for a
> "retracement" that you can use to Enter a positon consistant with the
> prevailing trend.
>
> Regards,
>
> Phsst
>
> - In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "gosub283" <gosub283@xxxx> wrote:
> > Hi Phsst,
> >
> > Thanks again for your commentary on this subject.
> > One question regarding your last message. It's bit of
> > a dumb question, but here it is nonetheless...
> > What's a Pullback ?
> > I suspect I know it by a different name, but what is
> > a pullback as it relates to your system.
> > Is it perhaps a "retracement" ?
> > Thanks for you patience..
> >
> > Gosub
> >
> > Hey, you Plunge Protection Team guys !...leave the
> > NASDAQ alone !....let it fall.
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> > > <Please post an outline of this system>
> > >
> > > I responded to a post asking what people found to be the best
> > > indicator to help identify the current situation (trend). I posted
> > > enough info to put anyone on a track to explore and backtest their
> > own
> > > 'pullback' system using ADX, PDI and MDI as the primary trend
> > > detection indicator.
> > >
> > > Use your imagination and backtest your own various 'pullback'
> > > scenerios. Play with simple moving average and exponential moving
> > > average crossover/pullbacks. Then play with Entry / Exit stradegies.
> > > Then, when you hit upon something promising, play with optimization
> > > and make it better.
> > >
> > > Here is my point..... I know from experience that any number of
> > > backtested pullback stradegies are profitable. And I figure that if
> > > you work hard enough at it that you can hit upon your own unique
> > setup
> > > and exit stradegy. That should be enough information to motivate you
> > > to work at it, and yet keep us from stepping all over each other in
> > > our real-life trading.
> > >
> > > I posted my own pullback system APR and RAR results. I'd like to
> > hear
> > > from others with RAR from their favorite trading systems along with
> > a
> > > **very** general description of their own trade setup criteria. I am
> > > not particularly creative, but I can take a concept and 'worry it to
> > > death' until I sculpt my own trading system from it.
> > >
> > > I'll share a backtesting Stop Loss stradegy that I have had to code
> > > around in my own backtesting code...
> > >
> > > When entering an actual 'next day' trade based upon EOD data, it is
> > > impossible to tell from database data whether the LOW of the next
> > day
> > > occurred BEFORE or AFTER the position is entered. THEREFORE, I
> > design
> > > my trading systems so that a Trailing Stop Loss Order is *NEVER*
> > > entered on the day that the trade is entered. But rather, I only
> > > implement my trailing stop loss system on the night after the trade
> > is
> > > executed, and I then adjust the StopPrice nightly thereafter.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Phsst
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Lionel
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: phsst [mailto:phsst@x...]
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2003 10:15 PM
> > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: TRENDING vs. RANGING markets
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Gosub states:
> > > >
> > > > <<However.... What I'm really looking for is what people found
> > > > to be the best indicator to help identify the current situation
> > (not
> > > > the future). I was basicaly throwing out a question to everyone to
> > > > see if anyone has had better success than me when developing a
> > > > transitional system that identifies when it is necessary to
> > change to
> > > > a different indicator.>>
> > > >
> > > > That is a fair question and I'll be happy to share my own
> > experience
> > > > with backtesting (and trading) trend detection systems.
> > > >
> > > > In the book Street Smarts co-authored by Linda Raschke, she
> > outlined a
> > > > trading methodology named the 'Holy Grail' which uses the ADX,
> > PDI,
> > > > MDI indicators to determine trend direction.
> > > >
> > > > With the help of a friend who has more 'instinctive' abilities
> > than
> > > > me, I developed a backtest system based upon a slight derivitive
> > of
> > > > Linda's 'Holy Grail' and hit paydirt.
> > > >
> > > > The 'Holy Grail' system is a classic pullback system that Linda
> > > > primarily trades futures with. My friend and I adapted it to stock
> > > > trading.
> > > >
> > > > In my own software, I calculated an Annual Percentate Rate of
> > return of
> > > > 189.59% for the past 10 or 11 years on the whole market. I
> > recently
> > > > adapted my 'Holy Grail' system to Amibroker and achieved silimar
> > > > results but with improvements using the Optimize function. AB
> > > > calculates the APR differently and reports a RAR of 142.21%, but
> > with
> > > > even greater monatery return amounts. While I don't know for
> > sure, I
> > > > think the difference in calculated percentage returns is that in
> > my
> > > > own system calculates returns based upon calendar days of
> > exposure to
> > > > the market, while AB might use Bars of exposure to the market. But
> > > > that is a subject for another discussion.
> > > >
> > > > A few weeks ago, I believe that Jayson stated that pullback
> > systems
> > > > stopped working after the 1999 blowoff, buy my system has shown a
> > > > profit every year for the past 11 years.
> > > >
> > > > As an aside... I'd encourage others to post backtest results on
> > the
> > > > whole market for the past 10 or 11 years of their favorite systems
> > > > just to see how good other trading systems can be using a RAR or
> > APR
> > > > measurement.
> > > >
> > > > But anyway, back to this thread:
> > > >
> > > > In developing other trading systems, I can generally improve
> > results
> > > > by incorporating the ADX, PDI, MDI indicators to implement trend
> > > > detection in my system development efforts.
> > > >
> > > > Also, I use a Quotes Plus database which has a historical QRS
> > > > indicator which emulates Investors Business Daily's proprietary
> > > > Relative Strength indicator. And my experience has been that by
> > also
> > > > filtering with the QRS indicator, my backtesting results are
> > improved
> > > > even more. The only problem is that Quotes Plus apparently
> > > > incorporated the QRS measurement in 1995, so when using that
> > > > indicator, you cut into the amount of historical data that you
> > can use
> > > > to backtest.
> > > >
> > > > Hope this is what you were asking for. And I hope that others will
> > > > share their 'favorite' trend detection indicators with the metrics
> > > > they use to measure system trade improvements. Whenever I need a
> > trend
> > > > indicator, the ADX, PDI, MDI are the first indicators I grab for.
> > How
> > > > about the rest of you?
> > > >
> > > > Phsst
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "gosub283" <gosub283@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > > Hi Yuki,
> > > > >
> > > > > Thanks for your comments.
> > > > > I agree with you completely. However....
> > > > > What I'm really looking for is what people found
> > > > > to be the best indicator to help identify the
> > > > > current situation (not the future).
> > > > > I was basicaly throwing out a question to everyone to
> > > > > see if anyone has had better success than me when
> > > > > developing a transitional system that identifies
> > > > > when it is necessary to change to a different indicator.
> > > > > I have had success with such a system. The problems
> > > > > arise during the transition phase from Trading to Trending.
> > > > > (Some losses due to ambiguity/confusion.)
> > > > > Once the transition is completed and the system automatically
> > > > > changes to the appropriat indicator, it works fine.
> > > > > I was trying to see if anyone else had played with this
> > > > > and perhaps found a better way.
> > > > > I am familiar with many indicators which can help with this
> > > > > but I'm always open to others.
> > > > > Jayson was very helpfull in pointing out the R-Squared and
> > > > > Twiggs-Money Flow.
> > > > >
> > > > > Thanks again,
> > > > > gosub283
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > > > Hi gosub283,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thursday, March 27, 2003, 2:08:16 AM, you wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > g> When a human looks at a chart, he/she can immediately
> > determine
> > > > > if
> > > > > > g> a market is in a TRENDING mode or a RANGING mode. It is a
> > most
> > > > > > g> amazing feat of human visual data analysis that takes
> > place in a
> > > > > > g> matter of seconds. Trying to get computers to "visually"
> > analize
> > > > > > g> anything takes major computing power. Unfotunately
> > computers and
> > > > > > g> trading system have a much more difficult time of
> > determining
> > > > > > g> these market modes than us humans.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I am not so sure humans do a much better job of this analysis
> > than
> > > > > do
> > > > > > computers. When we look at charts, we are looking at 100
> > percent
> > > > > > history. It is indeed rather easy to "segment" this history
> > into
> > > > > > trending and ranging periods using analytical abilities.
> > Yes, it
> > > > > > does happen in seconds, and seems almost effortless.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > However, the most important time period for any trader is
> > that
> > > > > period
> > > > > > of time which is NOT VISIBLE on the chart -- namely, the
> > future. We
> > > > > > can "see" the ranging and trending periods, but only in
> > retrospect,
> > > > > > where our minds make nice, neat visual categories for us
> > based on
> > > > > > what we *see*. But at the "real time" turning points, when
> > the
> > > > > > actual transition is in the future, out of sight, I doubt if
> > either
> > > > > > human or computer can reliably identify these transitions in
> > > > > advance.
> > > > > > (Reliably to me would be with some statistical edge that
> > clearly
> > > > > > beats random guessing.)
> > > > > >
> > > > > > In hindsight, it is all so clear of course -- so clear that
> > it is
> > > > > > tempting to believe that one can find some mathematical
> > formula that
> > > > > > will reveal all. But this is a sect in the cult of "Holy
> > Grail-ism"
> > > > > > in my opinion. To test my theory that human beings are not
> > any
> > > > > better
> > > > > > at identifying the transitions in "real time" than computers,
> > scroll
> > > > > > a chart very slowly (bar by bar) from left to right, with the
> > future
> > > > > > always off the screen, just as in real life. Make sure the
> > chart is
> > > > > > a completely unknown issue or index, and preferably one with
> > the
> > > > > > dates entirely removed or obscured (to do this test correctly
> > > > > someone
> > > > > > else will probably need to set up a blind test for you, I
> > don't
> > > > > think
> > > > > > you can truly set up a valid blind test yourself). Now see
> > > > > how "good"
> > > > > > your human brain is at identifying the transitions in "real
> > time".
> > > > > > And good luck! ^_-
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Yuki
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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