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[amibroker] Re: TRENDING vs. RANGING markets (for phsst)



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I'd settle for hearing what the Max DD's are that go with that 100+% 
return ?  It's not that difficult to build systems with superior 
returns, but usually not without high DD's, UI's and/or low MAR's, 
UPI's etc.

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Chuck Rademacher" 
<chuck_rademacher@x> wrote:
> MessageI too would dearly like to hear more about this system.  You 
talk
> about tripple digit returns "on the whole market for 10 to 11 
years".   That
> would be at least double the best RAR that I've ever seen using one 
system,
> one set of parameters across all stocks.
> 
> Can you explain what you mean by the "whole market"?   Are you 
applying your
> system across all 7,500 (or so) U.S. stocks?   Any filtering?    Do 
you
> include extinct stocks?   Is your filtering based on real volume 
and price
> on the day or are you using backadjusted prices/volumes?
> 
> I look forward to hearing more about your "grail".
> 
> Cheers
>   -----Original Message-----
>   From: Lionel Issen [mailto:lissen@x...]
>   Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2003 8:48 PM
>   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>   Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: TRENDING vs. RANGING markets
> 
> 
>   Please post an outline of this system
> 
>   Lionel
> 
> 
> 
>   -----Original Message-----
>   From: phsst [mailto:phsst@x...]
>   Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2003 10:15 PM
>   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>   Subject: [amibroker] Re: TRENDING vs. RANGING markets
> 
> 
>   Gosub states:
> 
>   <<However.... What I'm really looking for is what people found
>   to be the best indicator to help identify the current situation 
(not
>   the future). I was basicaly throwing out a question to everyone to
>   see if anyone has had better success than me when developing a
>   transitional system that identifies when it is necessary to 
change to
>   a different indicator.>>
> 
>   That is a fair question and I'll be happy to share my own 
experience
>   with backtesting (and trading) trend detection systems.
> 
>   In the book Street Smarts co-authored by Linda Raschke, she 
outlined a
>   trading methodology named the 'Holy Grail' which uses the ADX, 
PDI,
>   MDI indicators to determine trend direction.
> 
>   With the help of a friend who has more 'instinctive' abilities 
than
>   me, I developed a backtest system based upon a slight derivitive 
of
>   Linda's 'Holy Grail' and hit paydirt.
> 
>   The 'Holy Grail' system is a classic pullback system that Linda
>   primarily trades futures with. My friend and I adapted it to stock
>   trading.
> 
>   In my own software, I calculated an Annual Percentate Rate of 
return of
>   189.59% for the past 10 or 11 years on the whole market. I 
recently
>   adapted my 'Holy Grail' system to Amibroker and achieved silimar
>   results but with improvements using the Optimize function. AB
>   calculates the APR differently and reports a RAR of 142.21%, but 
with
>   even greater monatery return amounts. While I don't know for 
sure, I
>   think the difference in calculated percentage returns is that in 
my
>   own system calculates returns based upon calendar days of 
exposure to
>   the market, while AB might use Bars of exposure to the market. But
>   that is a subject for another discussion.
> 
>   A few weeks ago, I believe that Jayson stated that pullback 
systems
>   stopped working after the 1999 blowoff, buy my system has shown a
>   profit every year for the past 11 years.
> 
>   As an aside... I'd encourage others to post backtest results on 
the
>   whole market for the past 10 or 11 years of their favorite systems
>   just to see how good other trading systems can be using a RAR or 
APR
>   measurement.
> 
>   But anyway, back to this thread:
> 
>   In developing other trading systems, I can generally improve 
results
>   by incorporating the ADX, PDI, MDI indicators to implement trend
>   detection in my system development efforts.
> 
>   Also, I use a Quotes Plus database which has a historical QRS
>   indicator which emulates Investors Business Daily's proprietary
>   Relative Strength indicator. And my experience has been that by 
also
>   filtering with the QRS indicator, my backtesting results are 
improved
>   even more. The only problem is that Quotes Plus apparently
>   incorporated the QRS measurement in 1995, so when using that
>   indicator, you cut into the amount of historical data that you 
can use
>   to backtest.
> 
>   Hope this is what you were asking for. And I hope that others will
>   share their 'favorite' trend detection indicators with the metrics
>   they use to measure system trade improvements. Whenever I need a 
trend
>   indicator, the ADX, PDI, MDI are the first indicators I grab for. 
How
>   about the rest of you?
> 
>   Phsst
> 
>   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "gosub283" <gosub283@xxxx> 
wrote:
>   > Hi Yuki,
>   >
>   > Thanks for your comments.
>   > I agree with you completely. However....
>   > What I'm really looking for is what people found
>   > to be the best indicator to help identify the
>   > current situation (not the future).
>   > I was basicaly throwing out a question to everyone to
>   > see if anyone has had better success than me when
>   > developing a transitional system that identifies
>   > when it is necessary to change to a different indicator.
>   > I have had success with such a system. The problems
>   > arise during the transition phase from Trading to Trending.
>   > (Some losses due to ambiguity/confusion.)
>   > Once the transition is completed and the system automatically
>   > changes to the appropriat indicator, it works fine.
>   > I was trying to see if anyone else had played with this
>   > and perhaps found a better way.
>   > I am familiar with many indicators which can help with this
>   > but I'm always open to others.
>   > Jayson was very helpfull in pointing out the R-Squared and
>   > Twiggs-Money Flow.
>   >
>   > Thanks again,
>   > gosub283
>   >
>   >
>   > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> 
wrote:
>   > > Hi gosub283,
>   > >
>   > > Thursday, March 27, 2003, 2:08:16 AM, you wrote:
>   > >
>   > > g> When a human looks at a chart, he/she can immediately 
determine
>   > if
>   > > g> a market is in a TRENDING mode or a RANGING mode. It is a 
most
>   > > g> amazing feat of human visual data analysis that takes 
place in a
>   > > g> matter of seconds. Trying to get computers to "visually" 
analize
>   > > g> anything takes major computing power. Unfotunately 
computers and
>   > > g> trading system have a much more difficult time of 
determining
>   > > g> these market modes than us humans.
>   > >
>   > > I am not so sure humans do a much better job of this analysis 
than
>   > do
>   > > computers.  When we look at charts, we are looking at 100 
percent
>   > > history.  It is indeed rather easy to "segment" this history 
into
>   > > trending and ranging periods using analytical abilities.  
Yes, it
>   > > does happen in seconds, and seems almost effortless.
>   > >
>   > > However, the most important time period for any trader is that
>   > period
>   > > of time which is NOT VISIBLE on the chart -- namely, the 
future.  We
>   > > can "see" the ranging and trending periods, but only in 
retrospect,
>   > > where our minds make nice, neat visual categories for us 
based on
>   > > what we *see*.  But at the "real time" turning points, when 
the
>   > > actual transition is in the future, out of sight, I doubt if 
either
>   > > human or computer can reliably identify these transitions in
>   > advance.
>   > > (Reliably to me would be with some statistical edge that 
clearly
>   > > beats random guessing.)
>   > >
>   > > In hindsight, it is all so clear of course -- so clear that 
it is
>   > > tempting to believe that one can find some mathematical 
formula that
>   > > will reveal all. But this is a sect in the cult of "Holy 
Grail-ism"
>   > > in my opinion. To test my theory that human beings are not any
>   > better
>   > > at identifying the transitions in "real time" than computers, 
scroll
>   > > a chart very slowly (bar by bar) from left to right, with the 
future
>   > > always off the screen, just as in real life.  Make sure the 
chart is
>   > > a completely unknown issue or index, and preferably one with 
the
>   > > dates entirely removed or obscured (to do this test correctly
>   > someone
>   > > else will probably need to set up a blind test for you, I 
don't
>   > think
>   > > you can truly set up a valid blind test yourself). Now see
>   > how "good"
>   > > your human brain is at identifying the transitions in "real 
time".
>   > > And good luck!  ^_-
>   > >
>   > > Yuki
> 
> 
> 
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