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RE: [amibroker] Re: TRENDING vs. RANGING markets



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I think that Ehlers 
wrote some pares in TASC that discussed his algorithm.  It is not FFT. If 
you look at some of his books and some of his articles in TASC you'll probably 
find your answer.
 
<FONT face=Arial 
size=2>Lionel
 

<FONT face=Tahoma 
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Listes trading 
[mailto:listes.trading@xxxxxxx] Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2003 7:16 
AMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: [amibroker] 
Re: TRENDING vs. RANGING markets
<FONT face=Verdana color=#800000 
size=2>Dimitri
<FONT face=Verdana color=#800000 
size=2> 
If I 
have clearly understood the MESA documentation, MESA does not use FFT but 
another algorithm that is not subject to the FFT 
limitations.
FFT 
has 2 major limitations for financial applications:
  FFT 
  is valid only for time series having a finite second order moment and there is 
  no evidence that financial time series fulfil this condition (some theorician 
  like B.Mandelbrot has made the hypothesis of infinite moment for market time 
  series) 
  FFT 
  uses moving windows and is very sensitive to the choice of the window and to 
  the way data are padded, this is why - as you state- the historical results 
  are changed when you add new data
I 
think MESA is using Hilbert transform that is very efficient to analyse signals 
having a single frequency varying in time. It is able to extract the variation 
of the frequency. But when the signal contains several frequencies varying in 
time, the results are not reliable. Financial time series are composed of an 
unknown number of frequencies varying in time and, therefore, Hilbert transform 
does not seem very suitable for analysis and prediction.
<FONT face=Verdana color=#800000 
size=2>Anyway, MESA site contains a lot of interesting documents and even if it 
is not Holy Grail, it is a great source of ideas to built indicators and 
systems.
<FONT face=Verdana color=#800000 
size=2> 
<FONT face=Verdana color=#800000 
size=2>Waz

  <FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS 
  [mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: jeudi 27 mars 2003 
  11:30To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [amibroker] 
  Re: TRENDING vs. RANGING marketsGreg,thank you 
  for your mail.I always have a question for any spectral study. They are 
  usually based of FFT, which changes the historical results as time goes 
  by.My specific question is for the Cycle function of your gif. Suppose 
  we read a price 20 for March27. Three months later, the reading of 
  March27 will still be 20 or something else ?TIA for any 
  reply.Dimitris Tsokakis--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Greg" 
  <greg.bean@xxxx> wrote:> Gosub,> > I have just 
  recently been doing some reading about this in John Ehler's -> 
  Rocket Science for Traders . He does make an attempt at "predicting" 
  future> price movement. Below is a brief example of his approach to 
  this. I haven't> found out how to test this in AB , but maybe 
  someone else has.> > <A 
  href="">http://www.mesasoftware.com/mesa98.htm#MESA96> 
  > MESA2002:> > MESA2002 is THE premier cycle-based 
  trading program. MESA2002 is available> for a variety of trading 
  platforms, includingTradeStation (4.0, 2000i, and> 6.0), 
  SuperCharts, NeuroShellTrader, and Standalone. It accurately 
  measures> short term cycles. The trading platforms offer powerful 
  extensions to> trading systems by making variables adaptive to the 
  measured cycles. One> such adaptive application is to determine 
  whether the mode of the market is> cyclical or trending.> 
  > > MESA2002 program Charting Screen> > The basic 
  operation of MESA2002 is measurement of the spectral content of> 
  the price data using the Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis method. When 
  the> data is stationary the cycles are stable and consistent. The 
  spectral> display segment is a colorized contour plot showing the 
  quality of the cycle> measurement (the bottom display segment). 
  When the measured cycles are> erratic or when the spectral energy 
  is "splattered" across the range of> cycle periods the market is in 
  a Trend Mode.> > > > > The market mode is 
  sensed by examining the phase of the dominant cycle. A> fundamental 
  definition of a cycle is a constant rate change of phase. For> 
  example, a 10 day cycle changes phase at the rate of 36 degrees per day 
  to> complete the 360 degrees in each cycle. The Trend Mode is 
  identified by the> failure to change at a constant rate. The phase 
  presentation in the 3rd> display segment shows the phase changing 
  at a constant rate, forming a> sawtooth waveform in the Cycle Mode, 
  and changing erratically in the two> Trend Mode areas.> 
  > The Sinewave Indicator in the 2nd display segment gives the 
  position> reversal signals by the crossing of the two lines. Note these 
  two lines> cross only when the prices are in the Cycle Mode and, 
  unlike most oscillator> signals, do not give false whipsaw signals 
  when the price is in the Trend> Mode. The Sinewave Indicator is 
  anticipating the cyclic turning points, is> generated by adding 45 
  degrees to the measured phase angle and plotting the> Sine of 
  it.> > The strength and direction of the Trend are shown by the 
  two adaptive moving> averages overlaid on the price bars. The 
  slower of these averages is an> Instantaneous Trendline, obtained 
  by completely removing the dominant cycle> component. The faster of 
  these averages is a minimum lag filter.> > MESA2002 (standalone 
  and TradeStation versions) makes a prediction of prices> 10 bars 
  into the future. This prediction is made on the assumption that 
  the> measured dominant cycle will continue into the future with the 
  same> amplitude and phase. Therefore, the prediction has greater 
  validity when the> prices are in the Cycle Mode.> > 
  MESA2002 (standalone) reads five different data types directly, 
  including> Metastock, CSI, ASCII, and TC2000. You can generate your 
  own custom> portfolio and have MESA2002 automatically scan that 
  porfolio for buying and> selling opportunities.> > 
  > > The MESA2002 DEMO is a 534 KB self extracting file. When you 
  run MESADEMO,> it is extracted to the C:\MESADEMO directory as the 
  default. To run the> demo, you click START . . . RUN and then type 
  C:\MESADEMO\DEMO32. Then click> on the MESA2002.DBD file.> 
  > ...........................MESA2002 (standalone) 
  .........$350> ...........................MESA2002 for NeuroShell 
  Trader. .........$350> ...........................MESA2002 for 
  TradeStation2000i or 6.0> .........$495> 
  ...........................MESA2002 for TradeStation 4.0. 
  .........$495> ...........................MESA2002 for SuperCharts. 
  .........$250> > . . . . . .> > > > 
  (Back to Start)> > > > > ----- Original 
  Message -----> From: "gosub283" <gosub283@xxxx>Gosub> To: 
  <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2003 1:08 
  PM> Subject: [amibroker] TRENDING vs. RANGING markets> > 
  > > Hi everyone,> >> > I think this issue will 
  become more important> > over the next year or two.....> 
  >> > When a human looks at a chart, he/she can> > 
  immediately determine if a market is in> > a TRENDING mode or a 
  RANGING mode.> > It is a most amazing feat of human visual> 
  > data analysis that takes place in a matter> > of seconds. 
  Trying to get computers to "visually"> > analize anything takes 
  major computing power.> > Unfotunately computers and trading system 
  have> > a much more difficult time of determining these> > 
  market modes than us humans.> > Things become very "fuzzy" when 
  trying to> > put the question of "Ranging vs. Trending" into> 
  > mathamatical algorithms. And...of course.. the> > trading 
  timeframe (long term vs. short term),> > make things even 
  fuzzier.  (is "fuzzier" a word ??)> >> > For those of 
  us who program automated systems,> > this is especialy important 
  because it means> > that we can design systems that adjust 
  effortlessly> > between ranging and trending markets. If 
  correctly> > identified, a system can use a particular set> 
  > of indicators for Ranging markets and then switch> > to other 
  indicators when a trend is determined.> > Allowing for a truly 
  autonomous system.> >> > Has anyone found a way to 
  mathamatically (reliably!)> > determine if a market is Trending or 
  Ranging ???> > (An AFL algorithm perhaps)> > In other 
  words, an indicator which can give direction> > as to which set of 
  indicators to use.> > (A hypothetical example of such an indicator 
  would> >  have a response from 0=ranging to 10=Trending 
  )> >> > Cheers,> > Gosub283> >> 
  >> >> > Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxx> > Send 
  SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxx> > 
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