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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "gosub283" <gosub283@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DT,
>
> I'm not looking for ways to look into the future.
> (I don't recall stating that in my post.)
>
> I am looking for indicators that best identify the
> current mode.(either ranging or trending)
> If you think this is a useless excersize, then
> you should tell Wells Wilder, Tuchar Chande, and all
> of the other great technicians who developed indicators
> specifically for this purpose.
>
> Secondly, when a person looks at a chart, they describe the
> market as Trending or Trading.
Let us make something more clear: When a person looks at a chart, he
describes that the market WAS trending the last x bars. Nothing more,
nothing less. It does not give ANY guarantee that the market will
keep on for the next y bars. Even if you work with target prices, you
never know the time to reach the target.
On the other side, it is interesting to estimate the end of a trend.
On this sensitive subject I have some solutions, see the recent
messages for the 6 or 12 SELL signals, they appeared on critical N100
points. Of course, nobody knows if someday the RSIobi will exceed 50.
It just never did it in the last 40 months. Thatīs why I speak for
partial profit taking . If you were already long, it would be nice to
take some profits. In some cases the trend was not over, another Sell
signal appeared some bars later. This repetition is VERY important
and it would be better to Sell the rest open longs.
I hope it is more clear now.
DT
This is accepted practice and
> is only referring to the market in the "recent past".
> (Up to the most recent bar)
> If you choose to look at a chart in a different way, thats up
> to you. But for the sake of communicating with other people,
> it is totally acceptable to look at a chart with a price/time
> series which slopes from lower left to upper right and say
> that the market is generally trending at this time.
> I think that most of the participants on this forum already
> know that the future is not predictable. (except for
> statistical probability gambles)
>
>
> Gosub
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Look for example at this 5-min ^NDX session chart.
> > It is very close to the ideal sinusoidal, it could be the
academic
> > definition or a non-trendy session.
> > We know it now. We did not have any idea 8 h ago,only guesses
> perhaps.
> > At the peaks of the 10-12 units range, some people buy [to catch
> > the "trend"] and some people sell [to define the "range"].
> > This is the whole story [and this will be].
> > If we characterise the session as "trading", we refer always to
the
> > past and we have no guarantee at all if the next session will be
> > extra trendy or not. We can only guess and, believe me, it is a
> hard
> > job that needs a lot of study...
> > DT
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "gosub283" <gosub283@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > Hi everyone,
> > >
> > > I think this issue will become more important
> > > over the next year or two.....
> > >
> > > When a human looks at a chart, he/she can
> > > immediately determine if a market is in
> > > a TRENDING mode or a RANGING mode.
> > > It is a most amazing feat of human visual
> > > data analysis that takes place in a matter
> > > of seconds. Trying to get computers to "visually"
> > > analize anything takes major computing power.
> > > Unfotunately computers and trading system have
> > > a much more difficult time of determining these
> > > market modes than us humans.
> > > Things become very "fuzzy" when trying to
> > > put the question of "Ranging vs. Trending" into
> > > mathamatical algorithms. And...of course.. the
> > > trading timeframe (long term vs. short term),
> > > make things even fuzzier. (is "fuzzier" a word ??)
> > >
> > > For those of us who program automated systems,
> > > this is especialy important because it means
> > > that we can design systems that adjust effortlessly
> > > between ranging and trending markets. If correctly
> > > identified, a system can use a particular set
> > > of indicators for Ranging markets and then switch
> > > to other indicators when a trend is determined.
> > > Allowing for a truly autonomous system.
> > >
> > > Has anyone found a way to mathamatically (reliably!)
> > > determine if a market is Trending or Ranging ???
> > > (An AFL algorithm perhaps)
> > > In other words, an indicator which can give direction
> > > as to which set of indicators to use.
> > > (A hypothetical example of such an indicator would
> > > have a response from 0=ranging to 10=Trending )
> > >
> > > Cheers,
> > > Gosub283
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