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Very well said!
Thomas
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
> "When a human looks at a chart, he/she can immediately determine
> if ..."
> Gosub,
> I disagree 100%.
> Then human can not determine anything, immediately or after many
> hours of observation.
> The reason is simple : there is nothing to observe, when you look
> into the future. What you observe refers to the past. You recognise
> the trends afterwards and you may describe them, but it refers to
the
> past. You can not say that the next 15 bars we will have a trend.
> You can only guess.
> Almost anything the eye may "see" may be coded, but it will
describe
> the history, it will not predict the future.
> There are MANY indications the a trend may begin but there is no
> guarantee for a 35 bars trend !!
> When we code our ideas, we just hope for a repetition of a similar
> behavior. The rest is 100% our own risk.
> The last 9 months I did not have any wrong signal and did not trade
> the market the wrong way. I would be a fool to believe that it is a
> rule for the future !!!The risk is the same every day and I know it
> very well...
> DT
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "gosub283" <gosub283@xxxx> wrote:
> > Hi everyone,
> >
> > I think this issue will become more important
> > over the next year or two.....
> >
> > When a human looks at a chart, he/she can
> > immediately determine if a market is in
> > a TRENDING mode or a RANGING mode.
> > It is a most amazing feat of human visual
> > data analysis that takes place in a matter
> > of seconds. Trying to get computers to "visually"
> > analize anything takes major computing power.
> > Unfotunately computers and trading system have
> > a much more difficult time of determining these
> > market modes than us humans.
> > Things become very "fuzzy" when trying to
> > put the question of "Ranging vs. Trending" into
> > mathamatical algorithms. And...of course.. the
> > trading timeframe (long term vs. short term),
> > make things even fuzzier. (is "fuzzier" a word ??)
> >
> > For those of us who program automated systems,
> > this is especialy important because it means
> > that we can design systems that adjust effortlessly
> > between ranging and trending markets. If correctly
> > identified, a system can use a particular set
> > of indicators for Ranging markets and then switch
> > to other indicators when a trend is determined.
> > Allowing for a truly autonomous system.
> >
> > Has anyone found a way to mathamatically (reliably!)
> > determine if a market is Trending or Ranging ???
> > (An AFL algorithm perhaps)
> > In other words, an indicator which can give direction
> > as to which set of indicators to use.
> > (A hypothetical example of such an indicator would
> > have a response from 0=ranging to 10=Trending )
> >
> > Cheers,
> > Gosub283
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