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"When a human looks at a chart, he/she can immediately determine
if ..."
Gosub,
I disagree 100%.
Then human can not determine anything, immediately or after many
hours of observation.
The reason is simple : there is nothing to observe, when you look
into the future. What you observe refers to the past. You recognise
the trends afterwards and you may describe them, but it refers to the
past. You can not say that the next 15 bars we will have a trend.
You can only guess.
Almost anything the eye may "see" may be coded, but it will describe
the history, it will not predict the future.
There are MANY indications the a trend may begin but there is no
guarantee for a 35 bars trend !!
When we code our ideas, we just hope for a repetition of a similar
behavior. The rest is 100% our own risk.
The last 9 months I did not have any wrong signal and did not trade
the market the wrong way. I would be a fool to believe that it is a
rule for the future !!!The risk is the same every day and I know it
very well...
DT
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "gosub283" <gosub283@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi everyone,
>
> I think this issue will become more important
> over the next year or two.....
>
> When a human looks at a chart, he/she can
> immediately determine if a market is in
> a TRENDING mode or a RANGING mode.
> It is a most amazing feat of human visual
> data analysis that takes place in a matter
> of seconds. Trying to get computers to "visually"
> analize anything takes major computing power.
> Unfotunately computers and trading system have
> a much more difficult time of determining these
> market modes than us humans.
> Things become very "fuzzy" when trying to
> put the question of "Ranging vs. Trending" into
> mathamatical algorithms. And...of course.. the
> trading timeframe (long term vs. short term),
> make things even fuzzier. (is "fuzzier" a word ??)
>
> For those of us who program automated systems,
> this is especialy important because it means
> that we can design systems that adjust effortlessly
> between ranging and trending markets. If correctly
> identified, a system can use a particular set
> of indicators for Ranging markets and then switch
> to other indicators when a trend is determined.
> Allowing for a truly autonomous system.
>
> Has anyone found a way to mathamatically (reliably!)
> determine if a market is Trending or Ranging ???
> (An AFL algorithm perhaps)
> In other words, an indicator which can give direction
> as to which set of indicators to use.
> (A hypothetical example of such an indicator would
> have a response from 0=ranging to 10=Trending )
>
> Cheers,
> Gosub283
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