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Rik,
there is nothing personal, I wrote I do not know the stockanalyser
and its creator.
It is essential to understand that the hypothesis RocClose==RocHigh
is wrong, it happens by coincidence
[for example, two consecutive bullish bars with Close==High] and can
not be used as a "simple" or "simplistic"
hypothesis. Sometimes we "know" 10 min before the end that StochD
WILL cross the threshhold. I speak for these
bullish days when L>Ref(H,-1) and H>L and the probable C is also >L
and you may decide that nothing will change
the last 10 min, BUT, it is not ALWAYS true. Stochastic, as a 3-
parametric function is quite painful and risky for any
prediction. It is better to wait for the final EOD. [I do not always
apply this rule, but I have to...].
AHOLD was a good example. the stock was ready to give a buy signal,
it was still in SELL/SHORT phase. If you wanted
to catch the early birds, you should suffer from a severe -65%
penalty, if you were waiting for a CONFIRMED buy signal
you could avoid this [well prepared] trap. We usually want to
predict, but, trading is not prediction alone, intraday management
needs cold blood and quick decisions. Many traders shorted AHOLD at
todays Open and made a small fortune, some others
bought at open, because they know better etc. The 73M shares speak
much better than these lines do...
DT
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Rik Rasmussen" <hrasmussen@xxxx>
wrote:
> I am NOT the developer of the Stock Analyzer, only a user and
moderator of
> the yahoo group.
>
> I do NOT claim the feature has merit. I was only referring to it as
an
> example of an idea that might be adaptable to Amibroker. I am sure
a more
> useful design is possible. The Stock Analyzer is a nice little
application
> with some clever features but is no where near being in the same
league as
> Amibroker.
>
> Most of the SA users are aware of the weakness you mention. To us
it is a
> "toy" feature, just something to play with. In fact, I have never
used it
> for actual consideration.
>
> A similar future bar that is based on recent range average might
work as a
> "what if" tool.
>
> Rik Rasmussen
> Stock Analyzer mailing list moderator
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/stockanalyzer/
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 25, 2003 7:52 AM
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: looking into the future
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Rik Rasmussen" <hrasmussen@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > The feature in SA does set OHLC all to the same calculated future
> price
> > based on the % change you input.
> >
> > Obviously, this is not most desirable, but does allow some
> speculation.
>
> Rik,
> how often the % change of Close is the same with the % of High ?
> The statistics is dramatic.
> In 788 bars since Jan3, 2000, we have 787 ROCs per N100 stock, ie
> 79487 ROCs [include the 100 N100 stocks plus the index ^NDX]
> From an exploration
>
> ROCclose=ROC(C,1);
> ROChigh=ROC(H,1);
> Filter=ROCclose==ROChigh;
> AddColumn(ROCclose,"");
> AddColumn(ROChigh,"");
> AddColumn(LastValue(Cum(1)),"");
> I see 78 results, ie ~1/1000,
> from
> ROCclose=ROC(C,1);
> ROClow=ROC(L,1);
> Filter=ROCclose==ROClow;
> AddColumn(ROCclose,"");
> AddColumn(ROClow,"");
> I see 86/79487
> and if I try your suggestion ROChigh==ROCclose==ROClow it is
> impossible.
> Consequently, you hypothesis for same % is out of reality and does
> not allow any speculation.
> It is not easy and you should reconsider the hypothesis, perhaps.
> Thank you for your reply.
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> > Also, volume is left blank so indicators using volume break also.
> >
> > Rik Rasmussen
> > Stock Analyzer mailing list moderator
> > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/stockanalyzer/
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> > > Sent: Tuesday, February 25, 2003 6:50 AM
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: looking into the future
> > >
> > >
> > > Rik,
> > > I do not use the Stockanalyser, but, let me ask a question.
> > > Suppose that today´s StochD is 68 and I need a 70 cross to
obtain
> my
> > > sell criterion.
> > > As known, StochD is a function of C, H and L.
> > > How do you overcome this fact?
> > > Do you give all the probable C, H, L combinations that will give
> > > tomorrow´s StochD above 70 ? It would be rather confusing...
> > > Or you speak for monoparametric indicators only ?
> > > It would help to know what we ask from amibroker and Tomasz may
> > > materialise it, sooner or later...
> > > DT
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Rik Rasmussen"
> <hrasmussen@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > > In the Stock Analyzer we have a feature that allows you to
> create a
> > > > hypothetical price for tomorrow at a +/-% you set. This then
> > > creates a
> > > > fictitious price on the charts for tomorrow. You can then see
> the
> > > result on
> > > > the price and indicator charts. By playing with the %, you can
> see
> > > what
> > > > price action will be required for a certain indicator
condition.
> > > When done,
> > > > you turn it off and your charts are restored without the
> tomorrow
> > > price.
> > > > This feature is called "Signal Forecast and Estimation."
> > > >
> > > > Perhaps a similar "what if" feature could be done in
Amibroker.
> > > >
> > > > Rik Rasmussen
> > > > Stock Analyzer mailing list moderator
> > > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/stockanalyzer/
> > >
> > >
> > > Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxx
> > > Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxx
> > > -----------------------------------------
> > > Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > (Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
> > > --------------------------------------------
> > > Check group FAQ at:
> > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
>
>
> Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxx
> Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxx
> -----------------------------------------
> Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> (Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
> --------------------------------------------
> Check group FAQ at:
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>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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-----------------------------------------
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(Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
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