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> And, there is a more important question : Is there ANY reason for
> the market to change ?
> 99 period was there, it is a dream [or a nightmare...] and almost
> impossible to be repeated.
> I try with various methods to immitate the market behavior and
> apply it for the near future.
> If the market profile would change, MANY Breath Indicators will
> give CLEAR warnings and I will check very carefully to confirm
them.
> The most recent example was last October, when my RSIt reacted at
> relatively high levels [this is the way the market will leave
> behind its bearish mood]
> The last month, instead of a confirmation, I have to dissappoint
> you, nothing happened, may be the next time !!
> So, instead of being affraid of an [unrealistic, for me] bullish
> expansion, I prefer to FOLLOW the market without prejudice.
> The market is bearish and will remain bearish for a long time. We
> will have some good bullish trends two or three per year [and it
it good to be there !!!] and then back to basics [or lower].
> Frankly speaking, the pre-2000 period does not exist for me and any
> research of mine. Of course, this is nothing but a personal
opinion.
> Dimitris
A better question is, what are the reasons for any type of market?
We have all sorts of labels, Bull, Bear, Trading, Trending and etc.,
then we all try to fit the market into one of the criteria, but the
market doesn't listen it just goes along its way.
The market is going to go where it wants, reflecting our times
and expectations. Can we influence the market, as individuals NO.
Maybe larger institutions, but that is illegal at best.
We must be able to exhibit the flexibility to bend with what is
presented to us. Since, we cannot predict with any accuracy future
events, we engage in a certain amount of gambling. The best we
can do is better our odds of success.
The old question is what time period should we observe to make our
decisions, long, weekly, daily, hourly. In real life none of these
are going to work consistantly. My suggestion is that we need to
take a fresh look at the data that is presented to us. We need to
look beyond simple price data. When we go to buy something we look
at the price but, also its quality, size, personal need and etc.
Should we not look at our investments in the same light.
When we look for investments we can look beyond the price,
volume and examine the profits, EPS, debt. Does this give us
the whole picture, probably not. My suggestion is a quality
that is missed is the timeliness of the companies products.
Like the old Buggywhip example, the company might be making money,
but it future is not too bright.
With AB we have the ability to try new roads, create new indicators,
import added data. We might even need to create new data. This is
a on going process, we are never done, like turning over stones
to see what is underneath. Maybe we will find Gold, maybe not,
but if we don't turn over the stones we will never find the Gold.
Cliff s
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