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Ken,
This is NOT meant as a comment directed at your statment because I
know your quoteing a quote of a quote as it were.
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I know the argument that ...
"the nature of the market changed on 3/1/2000 and therefore
optimizations should be done after that point."
Now there's a classic statement that I haven't heard the likes of
since people were talking about the fact that we had a "new economy"
in the very late 90's and that we were no longer subject to bear
markets.
To me the "Nature of the Market" is the same as it's always been. It
goes up and it goes down. Without the excesses in one direction or
another there would be no value to tools like AB and no reason to
develop market timing systems as buy & hold would be the rule forever.
This therefore to me is the reason now and as always to not have a
testing window that's so short that it can't see anything outside the
current micro climate. Lots of people in the late 90's did this and
got smashed and now that we've had an almost three year long bear
market, people are starting to do it again.
Once this starts to pervade the mainstream and/or the talking heads
at the financial news networks we'll be absolutely positive the
bottom is at hand or already behind us.
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