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Hi Ken,
I already posted 3 complementary gifs from 3/2000 till now.
I do not study the 98/99 period.
There is no reason.
If, someday, we will have similar conditions and if I keep on
trading, may be.
But not now !!
The forest is full of bears, don t you see them ?
You may study this, or another period or another stockmarket.
For Athens SE it works fine the last 30 months and it is my day
consultant the last year. We were lucky enough to have the ability of
multiple securities calculations since
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/2865
For the recent period of my posting it is quite informative, I think.
The rest is up to you.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxx, "Ken Close" <closeks@xxxx> wrote:
> Good morning, Dimitris:
>
> I have played with this and would like to ask you: The gif you
present is
> pretty much on target for the current time you show, but after I
scan and
> plot and scroll backwards over the NDX, I do not understand the
value of
> this construction. The yellow congestion line, established by the
> increments of the rs parameter, stays high, even during obvious
periods of
> bullishness that we all recognized--the 1998-1999 period leading up
to
> Mar,2000. (This with the NDX.)
>
> I also tried to do this with the RUT (admittedly not with all the
stocks and
> knowing that these change). The yellow congestive stayed right
along the
> top with the red and green hugging the bottom.
>
> So can you elaborate how you would interpret the yellow, red, green
lines
> back then in order to gain confidence in what they are "saying"
now. No
> offenxe, but having looked in the past I do not know how to use
this to any
> value.
> Thus my respectful questions to you.
>
> Thanks,
>
> Ken
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Dimitris Tsokakis [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 6:15 AM
> To: amibroker@xxxx; Trading_Systems
> Subject: [amibroker] The Market Direction
>
>
> Sometimes a gif speaks better than text.
> After a short bullish period from A to B, the 32% bulls [green line]
dropped
> to 0% for the benefit of congestives [yellow line].
> The bears [red line] began to increase before C and rapidly reached
the 50%
> bears, 50% congestives, fighting to conquer
> the market [65% vs 35% yesterday...]
> Bulls are in a deep sleep since May 22 [point C].
> Some pessimists say that a bull sleeping for 28 days is a dead
bull, but,
> they are pessimists.
> As for the future, do not expect any surprise. Bears will decrease
someday
> for the benefit of congestives and lazy bulls will
> wake up slowly. The same attitude all the time, no matter of WCOM
or any
> XCOM strange results.
> This interesting indicator can not predict when, just "read" the
daily graph
> and you will see.
> For me it is better than various articles in paper or electronic
form
> [As you see it is quite fast, its lag at B was zero]
> Until then, cash is the king, especially when the market
will "forget" the
> scandals.
> As for the Trending or Trading indicator, the market is definitely
bearish
> from point X untill now [BEAR >50%]
> I think both indicators may protect from wrong decisions during
this cloudy
> period.
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> Reference:
> http://www.amibroker.com/library/detail.php?id=176
> and respective comment and
> http://www.amibroker.com/library/detail.php?id=177
>
>
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