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Good
morning, Dimitris:
<SPAN
class=080335810-03072002>
I
have played with this and would like to ask you: The gif you present is
pretty much on target for the current time you show, but after I scan and plot
and scroll backwards over the NDX, I do not understand the value of this
construction. The yellow congestion line, established by the increments of
the rs parameter, stays high, even during obvious periods of bullishness that we
all recognized--the 1998-1999 period leading up to Mar,2000. (This with the
NDX.)
<SPAN
class=080335810-03072002>
I
also tried to do this with the RUT (admittedly not with all the stocks and
knowing that these change). The yellow congestive stayed right along the
top with the red and green hugging the bottom.
<SPAN
class=080335810-03072002>
So
can you elaborate how you would interpret the yellow, red, green lines backthen
in order to gain confidence in what they are "saying" now. No offenxe, but
having looked in the past I do not know how to use this to any
value.
Thus
my respectful questions to you.
<SPAN
class=080335810-03072002>
<SPAN
class=080335810-03072002>Thanks,
<SPAN
class=080335810-03072002>
Ken
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Dimitris Tsokakis
[mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxx]Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 6:15
AMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; Trading_SystemsSubject:
[amibroker] The Market Direction
Sometimes a gif speaks better than text.
After a short bullish period from A to B, the 32% bulls[green
line]dropped to 0% for the benefit of congestives [yellow line].
The bears [red line] began to increase before C and rapidly
reached the 50% bears, 50% congestives, fighting to conquer
the market [65% vs 35% yesterday...]
Bulls are in a deep sleep since May 22
[point C].
Some pessimists say that a bull sleeping for 28 days isa dead
bull, but, they are pessimists.
As for the future, do not expect any surprise. Bears will
decrease someday for the benefit of congestives and lazy bulls will
wake up slowly. The same attitude all the time, no matter of
WCOM or any XCOM strange results.
This interesting indicator can not predict when, just "read"
the daily graph and you will see.
For me it is better than various articles in paper or
electronic form
[As you see it is quite fast, its lag at B was
zero]
Until then, cash is the king, especially when the market will
"forget" the scandals.
As for the Trending or Trading indicator, the market is
definitely bearish from point X untill now [BEAR >50%]
I think both indicators may protect from wrong decisions
during this cloudy period.
Dimitris Tsokakis
Reference:
<A
href="">http://www.amibroker.com/library/detail.php?id=176
and respective comment and
<A
href="">http://www.amibroker.com/library/detail.php?id=177
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