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Yeah, I agree about "where's the beef?" in the article. In fact, I
posted a question on Tharp's forum (no response yet) about the
simulations Gallucci talked about in that article. Sort of like a
chicken/egg type of question. How do you do a simulation if you don't
have a system with which to do the simulation? And, how do you
develop a system without first using one of those fancy software
packages he referred to (like Amibroker)? It seems to me you have to
start with a system first, then do the simulation. I also posed the
question (ala Richard A.) about marble games having no prior history
(i.e., akin to a coin flipping), which is nice for teaching money
management but not helpful for developing or backtesting a trading
system. If I get a good response or two, I'll copy/paste it on this
forum.
In answer to the question about whether I or anyone has played any of
those marble games, I can say I have when I took Tharp's workshop on
advanced stock market trading last Fall. It was great fun, and it
indeed does give you a sense of what real trading experiences are all
about with respect to the psychology of experiencing 7 losses in a
row and how to deal emotionally with that (or 7 wins in a row). It's
really an interesting exercise. As long as you have a positive
expectancy system, in the long run you will do OK if you play your
cards right and use antimartingale bet size strategies. I have not
downloaded the current 70 Mb marble game. It's free for only the 1st
level. After you pass that, then you can't play anymore until you
register and pay a fee for continued playing.
Richard, I posted about a week ago results of forward testing Leo's
scrambler on 5 tickers. I never heard from you. Did you have a chance
to read it? Just curious what your reaction was.
Al V.
--- In amibroker@xxxx, "Richard Alford" <richard.alford@xxxx> wrote:
> Actually, I found little meat and a lot of filler in the article.
I just attempted to download the trading game - some 70M - across
cable and it timed out.
>
> I suspect that one would learn that their bet should be sized to
sustain the largest probably string of loses, up to some level.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Richard
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: David Holzgrefe
> To: amibroker@xxxx
> Sent: Friday, June 28, 2002 4:41 PM
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Trading system development and
simulations
>
>
> AL an interesting article , Has anyone tried his trading game ??
what did they learn from it
>
> David
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Avcinci
> To: amibroker@xxxx
> Sent: Saturday, June 29, 2002 6:32 AM
> Subject: [amibroker] Trading system development and simulations
>
>
> Here is a very interesting article I got from Tharp's forum by
Frank Gallucci. It is about trading system development and
simulating. It's a good read:
http://www.iitm.com/Weekly_update/simulations1.htm
>
>
> Al Venosa
>
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Service.
>
>
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