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Don,
It is obvious that many readers did not pay attention to our
dicsussion, re the $1 of MSFT.
My QQQ posting had the same idea, not in absolute $ terms but in the
arranged relative form.
$1 is good for MSFT when prices are around 50, but prices were $100
and it is better to use the relative [normalized somehow] H-L/H+L.
I use to follow the evolution of the "waveform" of H-L/H+L, I will
give further explanations later.
I am glad you do not buy at doubletop, some traders do it, they play
the market with contrarian "logic", to catch the continuation of the
trend, but they usually fail when the environment is bearish.
DT
--- In amibroker@xxxx, "ddsmcl" <ddsmcl@xxxx> wrote:
> Dimitris, thanks for your reply.
>
> i feel as though i opened a can of worms with the posts that ensued
> following your reply below and your post on QQQ , its apparent that
> only you and i were aware of the relationship ? an interesting can
of
> worms non the less. ;-)
>
> my question was, how would you code the formula for the narrow
range
> day following the possible double top. the double top was the form
of
> resistance in this case but it could have been a trend line or any
> other form of resistance.
>
> by no means was i implying to buy the double top but 2 sell
> conditions [ sell = doubletop; and sell = H-L < 1.00 ;]??
>
> for me at least, using the buy condition [buy = doubletop;] and the
> sell condition [sell = H-L < 1.00;] returned a buy and a sell back
to
> back after running a scan.
>
> Don
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxx, "Dimitris Tsokakis" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> > --- In amibroker@xxxx, "dtsokakis" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> >
> >
> > > Ps : To avoid all this, I shorted on June 18 second peak. The
> whole
> > > H/L spread was less than 1$ and I did not like it...
> >
> >
> > >percdiff = 5; /* peak detection threshold */
> > >fwdcheck = 5; /* forward validity check */
> > >mindistance = 10;
> > >validdiff = percdiff/400;
> > >PK= Peak( H, percdiff, 1 ) == High;
> > >x = Cum( 1 );
> > >XPK1 = ValueWhen( PK, x, 1 );
> > >XPK2 = ValueWhen( PK, x, 2 );
> > >peakdiff = ValueWhen( PK, H, 1 )/ValueWhen( PK, H, 2 );
> > >doubletop = PK AND abs( peakdiff - 1 ) < validdiff AND (XPK1 -
> > >XPK2)>mindistance
> > >AND High > HHV( Ref( H, fwdcheck ), fwdcheck - 1 );
> > >Buy = doubletop;
> > >Sell = H-L < 1.00 ;
> > >if condition 1 is "doubletop", and condition 2 is "H-L < 1.00".
> > >for the AFL impaired, what is the AFL formula for the short.
> > > tks Don
> > >ps: MSFT / Sell = H-L < 1.00;, going back over 2 years.
> interesting.
> >
> > Don,
> > Although it was a local decision [that s why I wrote "I did not
> like it..."], MSFT has this
> > habit to shrink the spread when it is near the peak.
> > To make this condition better [it is crazy to Buy =
> doubletop; !!!!!, please don t do it ]
> > run the exploration
> >
> > Filter=H-L<0.0085*(H+L);
> > AddColumn(C,"");
> > Sell=Filter;
> >
> > and double click on the results.
> > The best Short is the last Sell, but we do not know it.
> > I use to Short=Sell and re-Short +5% or +10% higher. [If I am
> wrong, I will stop when +20% higher,
> > but There was no need the last two years...]
> > [I was lucky enough last November, Shorting at 64.5 on 8/11 and
re-
> shorted at 70
> > between 8 to 11/1/2002]
> > Cover according to various criteria. Buy from time to time, it is
> the only way to sell.
> > If you don t buy, you may go short/cover, the environment is
> bearish [and it will not
> > change to rocket-bullish next week...] with some intension to
> congestive.
> > You may keep in mind that the wide optimization
> >
> >
> > Filter=H-L<0.0085*(H+L);
> > AddColumn(C,"");
> > Short=Filter;
> > d=Optimize("d",36,2,40,1);
> > Short=ExRemSpan(Short,d);
> > Cover=Ref(Short,-d);
> >
> > is profitable from 2 to 50 [or more] days and , I think, you don
t
> need anything more
> > from MSFT. Just some easy profits from time to time.
> > Of course, if you dream huge profits for the company, if you
> remember the 99 rally
> > and all this romantic stuff, you may join the ~100M buyers of Jan
> 16-17, 2002.
> > These days ~100M shares were bought at ~$70.
> > What was the buyers target ? $100 or $ 140 for the next two
> months?????
> > I don t know and never will. They know better.
> > This is just for a Synday discussion, systematic MSFT trading may
> stand for a +500%
> > for the last two years, if you like and if you trust this Stock.
> > Good luck and, please, don t buy when doubletop. It is VERY
> dangerous.
> > Dimitris Tsokakis
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