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Steve:
I suspect that many use descending triangle patterns
for projection purposes before anything definitive has occurred, as opposedto
waiting for a breakout (either up or down). Waiting for a breakout isthe
"normal" way of using the pattern, but those that try to guess are, as you and
Murphy suggest, involved in a crapshoot. Bulkowski has studied the pattern
and his failure rate statistics confirm what you and Murphy are sayingfor
projection purposes, as opposed to waiting for a clear-cut
breakout:
Failure rate(before
breakout): 45%
Failure rate after downside breakout:
4%
There are a number of other interesting statistics,
including average rise of failed patterns = 2X successful patterns, etc.
In any case, it is clear that just drawing a couple of lines and "jumping" is
too simple.
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Steve
Karnish
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 27, 2002 5:08
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker]
Re:"ba-buy"
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Dimitris,
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>
"Please readattached
gif. It does not look so promising."
No it doesn't Dimitris. I think I'll slit
my wrist. March of 2000, 9/11, and now this. I quit.
"Any furtheradvice
?"
Keep posting in black and white, it's less
offensive.
"Shall I wait
?"
He who hesitates is lost.
"Is it short, medium or
long term buy ?"
Short term buys become long term when they're
losing (check out the length of losers vs. length of winners).
"Do you apply any kind of
stop loss ?"
I don't apply stops in mechanical systems (don't
believe all that you read in overpriced books).
"Or you waitfor the next
signal, whenever it comes."
You got it.
"Your trading experience
and responsibility is much appreciated"
Thanks, I think.
And yes, I did read your post and I couldn't
believe you would imply that a descending triangle is a reliable chart pattern
(but, it's tough to argue with the success of this trade). I've read
Edwards and Magee five times, taught Bar Chart Analysis in undergraduate and
graduate schools and have studied charts for thirty years... "don't bet the
farm on a descending triangle". Now, I wouldn't want anyone to takemy
word for it. I'll let John Murphy's research speak: He testedthe
S&100 stocks with his Chart Pattern Recognition software and found that
"descending triangles" are 52% profitable after a signal As he says:
"Only the 100% objective raw patterns and their accompaninying signals were
used to calculate the results." What a joke! I consider the whole
unscientific test a sham. I'm sure you can support your descending
triangle trade with much better numbers than Murphy. After all, this
one's a terrific winner for you...you must have evidence that this formation
is reliable enough to risk capital on.
Do you consider wise to buy with a basicsupport
breakout "ante portas"?
Is that Greek or Latin? My favorite Latin quote is: Qui non
intellegit, aut taceat aut discat. I do not understand "support
breakout", I am a mechanical machine that flashes green(buy) and
red(sell).
"Any idea for the new
support/pivot point of ^NDX ?"
Don't ask me....I'm not in the prediction game, I
only monitor momentum and oil the machines.
"Any documented hint
appreciated."
Here's a big HINT:
Of the fifteen trades I closed on 4/17, thirteen
were profitable (remember that post...eleven days ago?). You forgotto
show those in your spreadsheet. The "out of sample" (posted before the
next opening) recommendations, posted at my site since 1/1/00, have produced ,
1,073 trades, of which 810 have been profitable (~75%). These were all
buy-hold-close positions. If short positions were taken during this
horrible time frame...profits and percentages would have been much
higher.
So, I don't know exactly what answers you
want from me. But since you are making so much money on this short
position, why don't you fly to Denver and listen to me on June 25th.
I'll be defending my trading approaches at the Market Technicians Association
monthly meeting. They have had Ralph Ampacura, John Murphy and John
Bollinger speak during the last six months. Tough company. As
always, I will let my public track record, my private track records and my
extensive research results speak for themselves.
Dimitris, since you ask so many
questions...please allow me a few: Do you actually trade (using real
money in the currency of your choice)? Do you have fiduciary
responsibilities for others? Would you mind sharing your
background?
Take care,
Steve
<A
href="">www.cedarcreektrading.com
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Dimitris
Tsokakis
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 27, 2002 2:04
AM
Subject: [amibroker] Re:"ba-buy"
Steve,
Please read attached gif. It does not look so
promissing.
Any further advice ?
Shall I wait ?
Is it short, medium or long term buy
?
Do you apply any kind of stop loss
?
Or you wait for the next signal, whenever it
comes.
Your trading experience and responsibility is
much appreciated.
Thank you in advance for any
reply.
Dimitris Tsokakis
PS. Did you read the
<A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/15320
and
<A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/15143
and
<A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/15127
posted by 23/4 to this list ?
Do you consider wise to buy with a basic
support breakout "ante portas"?
Any idea for the new support/pivot point of
^NDX ?
[The question is a bit difficult for me. This
is the reason I wrote at
<A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/15127
"I really dont like
it.". Evidence for this new support is a painful headache
]
Any documented hint appreciated.
From: "Steve Karnish" <<A
href="">kernish@xxxx> Date: Wed Apr 24,
2002 4:27 pmSubject: "ba-buy"
List,
Seven days ago, my realm of four dozenstocks
triggered an unprecented fifteen "sell signals". This
morning, many of these same stocks have triggered "buy signals" for the
opening bell. This time, thirteen stocks (haven't seen this many
buy signals in a year) are begging to be bought. These recent
"correlations" are telling us something...I just haven't figured out why,
suddenly, I am getting these "lock step" correlations. Anyway,
I'm buying: ADBE, AMAT, ATML, BEAS, CMVT, ERTS, KLAC, MCHP, MDT, MXIM,
NSM, NVLS, TER.
Take care,
Steve Your use of
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href="">Yahoo! Terms of Service.
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href="">Yahoo! Terms of Service.
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