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a=roc(c,11);
filter=a>0;
numcolumns=1;
column0=a;
for all NDX stocks for April 20, to examine the gain of stocks since April 4,
the results vary from +203% for RFMD, + 181% for INKT up to +1.43% for
USAI and +4.43% for COST.
After that I could not resist to run the formula
a=roc(c,11);
filter=a>100;
numcolumns=1;
column0=a;
asking for stocks better than double price in 11 trading days.
The analysis resulted 11 stocks from +104% up to +203%.
The only comment here will be a reply to the very important
phrase of Dr. S. Nathan Berger:
"We all know market conditions change and formulae that worked
last month or last week are no longer productive."
Since composite tickers are calculated from the Market itself, I expect
that they will incorporate the changes. This is the target of any "Breath indicator"
to eavesdrop the breath of the Market.
Breath indicators do not predict some months before, they only detect and confirm
each other. Timing is not bad, lag is -1, 0 or +1 in general terms.
I will revert with more examples.
Dimitris Tsokakis
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<DIV><FONT size=2>A nice way to avoid the MACD whipsaws, is the use of MACD
composites.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Formulas are exposed in "Trending or Trading ?"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><A
href="http://www.amibroker.com/library/formula.php?id=71";>http://www.amibroker.com/library/formula.php?id=71</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The built-in MACD (12,26,9) is used, no further calibration
for the specific </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>needs of the Market, the composites are based on the "rough"
condition of</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>cross MACD with its SIGNAL, just for experimental
purposes.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The result is in att. gif for ^NDX early April
low.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The green line is the bullMACD and the red one is the
bearMACD.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>We have a clear turning point at A (~30% bulls), at B (~70%
bears)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>exactly the April 4.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The following days bulls increased until D, bears decreased
until C.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>At April 19 100/101 stocks are bullish (99%)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>At April 19 1/101 stock is bearish (~1%).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>(Indeed, ADLAC was troubled in a long time congestion that
period)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>At April 20 the percentage remained the same.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>If you follow this analysis, the only objection to sellis the
probability</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>for the Market to stick on Maximum for many days (as wesay
for </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>standard indicators remaining o/b or o/s for a long
time).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>But, a simple glance at the entire MACD COMPO graph,
informs</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>you that it it never occurred in the past. This graph is a
clear oscillator</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>and at April 19 we have had a perfect peak.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>After such a peak the market will change to congestive or
bearish.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>In my opinion, you have a clear sell signal here.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Running the simple, but interesting formula in AA</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT
size=2>a=roc(c,11);<BR>filter=a>0;<BR>numcolumns=1;<BR>column0=a;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>for all NDX stocks for April 20, to examine the gain ofstocks
since April 4,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>the results vary from +203% for RFMD, + 181% for INKT up to
+1.43% for</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>USAI and +4.43% for COST.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>After that I could not resist to run the formula </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT
size=2>a=roc(c,11);<BR>filter=a>100;<BR>numcolumns=1;<BR>column0=a;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>asking for stocks better than double price in 11 trading
days.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The analysis resulted 11 stocks from +104% up to
+203%.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The only comment here will be a reply to the very
important</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>phrase of Dr. S. Nathan Berger:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>"We all know market conditions change and formulae thatworked
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>last month or last week are no longer
productive."</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Since composite tickers are calculated from the Market itself,
I expect </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>that they</FONT><FONT size=2> will incorporate the changes.
This is the target of any "Breath indicator" </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>to eavesdrop</FONT><FONT size=2> the breath of the
Market.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Breath indicators do not predict some months before, they only
detect and confirm</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>each other. Timing is not bad, lag is -1, 0 or +1 in general
terms.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I will revert with more examples.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Dimitris Tsokakis<BR></DIV></FONT></BODY></HTML>
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