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Dimitri;
Thank you for your response to explorations. The study that I am
trying to acheive can be used for stocks as well as commodities.
Along with a visual confirmation as to bullish or bearish a market, I
also try to quantify market direction with several indicators
confirming.
To that end, one of my confirming studies deals with probabilities.
I have created several spreadsheets in microsoft excel 97, which allow
me to find the standard deviation, Historical Volatility, and
Probability of market movement. By using these measurements and time,
I am able to determine what is the Probability of a target price to be
acheived or not. ( ex. 60% ,70%, 80%, 90%).
If you would like me to upload a copy of this spreadsheet. Let me
Know.
Back to the exploration. I guess amibroker can not handle this type of
study.
A sample report of this type of study might look like this;
testing data: 90 days of history
test 1: If Friday's close > Thursday's close
Monday's close: higher-- 11
lower -- 1
test 2: If Friday's close < Thursday's close
Monday's close: higher-- 11
lower -- 1
test 3: If Friday's close = Thursday's close
Monday's close: higher-- 11
lower -- 1
As you can see with this type of test, there is a 90% chance of
Monday's close being higher. The Probability is 90%, My visual
confirmation (technical analysis) is bullish, My indicators are
bullish, I will initiate a bullish strategy.
If you Know of a program that can produce this type of study, please
let me know.
Again, thank you,
Anthony
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