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Jim,
Is your scenario about secondary high on 23rd of Nov 2009 still valid ?
Sincerely,
Michael.
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jim Ross" <jrosscpa@xxx> wrote:
>
> 1929-1987 Spiral Calendar analog update. The first three paragraphs
> introduce the subject and are only a rehash of prior updates. Skip to the
> fourth paragraph if you've been following this speculation.
>
> The SC analog projects 4 dates in 2009 based upon the comparable landmark
> dates in 1987 and Chris Carolan's F25 interval (a simple algorithm of the
> Fibonacci series' 25th number). See my first post and subsequent posts of
> this speculation dated September 25, 2009. The four dates and computations
> based upon DJIA are computed in the following (ignore the "First bottom"
> which is not a landmark date and which has NOT previously proven to provide
> SC significance):
>
> http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/dc727e07-537
> 2-4181-a778-a229cc4ca671
>
> Picking four dates that might have been picked at random months or years in
> advance and represented to become significant turning points in the 2009
> market is, in my opinion, an occurrence the likelihood of which is
> statistically so improbable that it cannot be computed. If the Gaussian
> likelihood of the occurrence of the October 19, 1987 event was 1 in 5000
> lifetimes (where one lifetime is that of the universe) as computed by Nassim
> Taleb, then I expect predicting four unique dates surrounding either the
> 1987 or a prospective 2009 resonance of 1987 is similarly and, likely,
> vastly more improbable. Without any hint of causality, the 1929-1987 SC
> analog is simply numerology.
>
> It has become an intriguing speculation because there are, tentatively,
> three signs that it might work. FIRST, the interval between 1929 to 1987
> divided by 1987 to 2009 is .381, a near perfect Fibonacci coincidence. This
> first caught my attention but that was all; it was 'cute.' SECOND, in back
> testing the four dates it was noted that the July 11, 2009 date (a Saturday)
> was a perfect projection of the bottom that actually occurred on July 10,
> 2009. I call that a "successful" projection realized because any projection
> cannot be more accurate than its measurement interval; one day. That date
> signaled the bear market rally had reached a midpoint bottom before a final
> grand run-up into the second projected date. This low was projected in
> contrast to the rampant speculation de jour that a head and shoulders top
> destined an exactly opposite move down to test March lows. THIRD, the
> October 16, 2009 date projecting a final highest high next preceding a
> significant decline has resulted in a new recovery high on October 14, 2009
> and October 19, 2009. Given the 1 trading day allowance for measurement
> error, October 16, 2009 has, tentatively, proven to be a success. It is
> considered a tentative success because any new high after October 19, 2009
> will indicate the date was not a "highest high" and will reduce confidence
> in the model.
>
> This last week's decline has increased the likelihood that the predicted
> October 16, 2009 high (which occurred one trading day later on October 19,
> 2000) was a successful prediction of the SC Analogy. Assuming that to be
> the case, the November 23, 2009 secondary high becomes the next important
> predicted date. That puts a gap in the model because the model predicts the
> "final high" and the "secondary high" but no "First bottom." When does the
> first bottom occur and how far will it penetrate? Carolan did not offer
> that date, I presume, because unlike the four dates it was 4 trading days
> off between 1987 and 1929. In other words, the first bottom in 1929 plus
> F29 missed being a valid projection by 4 trading days.
>
> How far, then, will this first wave down go? In 1929 it was 20% and in 1987
> it was 10%:
>
> http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/7b53d6e5-b6c
> a-49e8-ab14-c95f07ded5a3
>
> Pretty big variance in "How far" and SC surely does not give guidance on
> anything but the 4 dates. And when? Again, I simply don't know. But the
> model says after October 16 and before November 23. Based on other SC
> estimation I've done, I'm thinking November 17 or so with a one-week climb
> to the November 23 secondary high. You might take a look at the following
> comparison of 2009 to 1929 and 1987 which is aligned on the highest closing
> high of each year:
>
> http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/332e8bb9-9f0
> 6-4b5b-be72-c82d9b818c2e
>
> Something else to look at are those two vectors. Livermore and others liked
> to draw trend lines on the high and the first low and then the high and the
> first reactionary high. Well, you can see in 1987 and 1929, those lines
> were pretty indicative of what followed. I'll leave it to your imagination.
>
> One other implication of that chart. The 2009 ascension into the October
> 19, 2009 high is steeper than EITHER 1929 or 1987. If this market is
> destined to collapse, I expect it could be historic. And if this is
> destined to be the greatest bear in history as the Kondratieff Winter or the
> Grand Supercycle stature would suggest, would it not be poetic that it sport
> the greatest crash in history? Vastly unlikely.
>
> Jim
>
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