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I have a no nonsense stop. My options expire. No complaints, I’ve
been fortunate. And I’ve followed your work for a long time. Don’t understand
it but it works pretty good along with your management system.
The next couple weeks could be interesting. Good luck, Jim
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Ben
Sent: Sunday, October 18, 2009 9:18 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] Re: Failure of studies/patterns
Hello Jim
Solar Man
had times when he was right
And times
when he was wrong
Same
with Al
We all
have our good spells and bad spells
One ALWAYS
have to trade with stops
When
wrong,, your loss small,,
All the
best
Ben
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Jim Ross
Sent: Sunday, October 18, 2009 8:54 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] Re: Failure of studies/patterns
When you get that million Ben you can
buy SolarMan’s algorithm that Al Larson mimicked. Oops, he was selling it
for $64M.
Jim
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Ben
Sent: Sunday, October 18, 2009 8:39 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] Re: Failure of studies/patterns
Thanks
That’s 1 million I owe you
Ben
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of SergeyTS
Sent: Sunday, October 18, 2009 8:36 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Failure of studies/patterns
Can you run the 10, 20, and 40 week cycle
and show us what it predicts? For same period?
----- Original Message -----
Sent:
Sunday, October 18, 2009 8:22 PM
Subject: RE:
[RT] Re: Failure of studies/patterns
Thanks for giving us the future of Dow, on
a silver platter
Can you run the 10, 20, and 40 week cycle
and show us what it predicts? For same period?
All the best
Ben
BTW, this is forecast based on last 4 dominant cycles:
----- Original Message -----
Sent:
Sunday, October 18, 2009 6:25 PM
Subject: Re:
[RT] Re: Failure of studies/patterns
Clyde, I think this is some kind of
misunderstanding.
MESA deals with dominant cycles, this is not a tool
that calculates the cycles more accurately. It simply deals with not ideal
cycles.
For example, it deals with the cycles whose
period and/or phase changes. This is the main reason why MESA has been
developed. The most tradable cycles mostly exist as dominat cycles (as cycles
change constantly), the stable cycles are economical cycles only (like Kitchen
or Juglar cycles).
This fact changes the whole situtation
drastically: we constanly should recalculate spectrogrtam (when
the new price history is coming). And we cannot apply classical
back testing here.
----- Original Message -----
Sent:
Sunday, October 18, 2009 12:47 PM
Subject: Re:
[RT] Re: Failure of studies/patterns
Here is the type of study you mentioned but in this
case
only 10 years of data is used and the
"normal" Fourier
synthesis is used and results are from four periods.
----- Original Message -----
Sent:
Sunday, October 18, 2009 6:29 AM
Subject: RE:
[RT] Re: Failure of studies/patterns
Thank you Clyde. I have a question.
After having determined the single frequency candidates using MESA and
optimizing the shifting as indicated, if we went back and instead performed a
brute optimization of all frequencies (including optimizing shifting), wouldn’t
we get similar results? In other words, are there more than just these three
frequencies that could be “made” to work and if so, what does that tell us?
The reason I ask is that it appears your
method “may” be tying into the natural tendency of the markets to rise over
longer periods (to varying degrees) and I wonder out loud if the distribution
of frequencies couldn’t be more random and still work.
Regards,
Gene
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Clyde Lee(swb)
Sent: Sunday, October 18, 2009 12:16 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Re: Failure of studies/patterns
This discussion turned into a discussion of fixed
period
"waves" based on a non-analytic method.
I prefer an analytic method for examining periods of
waves and use the Maximum Entropy method to measure
However, I take a simple approach for fixed wave
projections
and use a trading model based on fixed Cosine waves
and
trade at inflection points which are optimized for
lead/lag of
the fixed wave over a very long period of time.
The attached pictures indicate that MESA analysis says
that
there are 82 month, 108 month, and 262 month LONG
period waves in the DJIA from 1921 to now.
The results of each model and the composite model are
shown in the attached pictures.
__._,_.___
![]()
__,_._,___
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