M Syed, I appreciate your insights and sharing.
Here’s a pattern for you. I first posted this
speculation on Slope of Hope, markettimers@xxxxxxxxxxx, yelnick, spiritoftruth
on September 25. I call it the Sirial Calendar 1929-1987 analogy. It
predicts 4 dates in 2009 that MAY replicate the same 4 dates that occurred in
1929 and 1987 that were the focus of Chris Carolan’s book, The Spiral
Calendar. The four dates are computed very simply according to Chris “Spiral”
intervals published in his book (Fibonacci based intervals counted in synodic periods
of 29.5306 days).
http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/e78ae4c6-8eb2-4977-b8d6-001fe77b25c8
The first of 4 dates was July 11, 2009 and was a perfect “hit”.
It was a significant low. If you recall, on the date of that low,
everyone….everyone was watching the infamous Head and Shoulders
TOP. It was being shown on CNBC. EWI was publishing it. It
ordained that the market would re test the March 2009 lows. But the July
11 date indicated that it was THE low before the next date which would be a top…and
that date is October 16, 2009, yesterday.
Keep in mind any projection can never be more accurate than the
projection interval. So, July 11 was the projection +- one day.
And, July 11 was a Saturday. So, I’d have said that significant low
could have occurred on Friday July 10, Thursday July 9, Monday July 13 or
Tuesday July 14 and the model would have been credited with a successful
prediction. Similarly, I’d say three dates would satisfy the
October 16 prediction; Thursday October 15, Friday October 16 or Monday October
19.
Well, October 15 had a new recovery high in the DOW and SPX.
I’d say that satisfies the model. There could be a remaining high
according to the model on Monday or it might not occur. The model remains
valid either way; it simply projected the final highest high on October 16 +- 1
day so it could have a further high Monday. Now, if Tuesday October 17
has a further recovery high, I’d say the model is bust. But for
now, the model has predicted TWO monument dates in 2009 that occurred in BOTH
1929 and 1987.
Pure numerology. Nothing more. If I gave these four
dates to you with the implications in June 2009, what would be the probability you’d
give a numerological savant that they’d occur? One in
infinity. When the first date worked, what would the probability
be? Well maybe a little less worse, say one in Taleb’s 5000
lifetimes (of the universe). But now we’ve tentatively got 2 out of
4 dates are a success. It’s got me interested. A new high
AFTER Monday trashes the whole thing, but until then it’s a “hmmmmm.”
Here’s the implied analog in chart form aligned for the lowest low in
each of the 3 years:
http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/07742629-a2d9-4b56-a3e5-83f0d23443c0
Interesting stuff,
Jim
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of tpmods
Sent: Saturday, October 17, 2009 8:35 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Failure of studies/patterns
I am seeing bearish calls in our group since
last 30 days or so,needless to say all those bearish calls gone wrong
predicting market trend and stopped out,then next time they came up with other
patterns and gave sell calls again failed.
So we need to do self check now why we failed,this helps us in long term and
increase our chances for our future trades profitibility.
take this in right spirit.
Bye and good luck.
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