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Here are some charts of UNG and Nat Gas Futures. As you can see the
Commercials and Funds at 'record' odds in NATGAS.
It's best to trade with the funds in the short term as they bully the
market, but in the end,
the commercials eventually win-out taking nearly everyones money and
hedging at extremes.
Shorting straight into the heating season would be like shorting air
conditioning in June.
This isn't the only commodity/future that has record bets laid out. A
few years back sugar got to 1.5¢ because there was no
place to put it. Now it's at a 28 year high...
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