Hurst indicated that a CENTERED MOVING AVERAGE was a
proper
method of examining cyclicality in a price series -- I
agree.
The attached shows two relative long term (186 weeks--3.6
years and 386 weeks
--7.4 years). These lengths are taken from of MEM
evaluation of cycles in the
DOW weekly data.
The attached pictures show just how far this approach can
project into the
future and whether it is correct or not remains to be
seen.
In evaluating studies of this length we can only examine if
the behavior of
prices lie within a series of "bands" which we calculate
around the Centered
Moving Average of prices and the Fourier projection of the
selected period
of cyclicality.
LOOK HARD AT THESE RESULTS.
This approach is not yet a "commercial" product. Any
feedback as to whether
this approach has merit would be appreciated.
Clyde
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Clyde
Lee
SYTECH Corporation
7910
Westglen
Phone: 713.783.9540
Suite
105
Fax: 713.783.1092
Houston, TX 77063 www.theswingmachine.com
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