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problem is much bigger
during 1990-2000 bear
municipalies were asked to INCREASE their monthly
contributions to their employee state retirement funds
this years will be a repeat!!
wait to see your school and real estate tax
increase 2010 by min 10%
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, April 03, 2009 3:58
PM
Subject: Re: [TimeandCycles] Economic
Cycle Turning Up/Recovery Ahead
Here in Upstate New York there are no signs
of an economic recovery.
Many houses for sale everywhere.
Abandoned and forgotten.
Town taxes increase by 10 %, but the
roads are in disrepair.
School taxes increase by 13%, but
enrollment is diminishing and they are laying off staff.
Young families are moving out because
there are no jobs now or coming.
Failing small Mom and Pop businesses
left and right. Even small businesses just acquired by aggressive,
ambitious, family-oriented immigrants from you-know-where are failing and
being abandoned.
State taxes are increasing. New
surprise one thousand dollar tax came out last week on S-Corporations. Income
tax to rise.
Rich people, investors, prospective
employers moving out of state. (source: National Public Radio)
The ski
slopes are empty. Heck, even the bars are empty.
Whole villages are openly arming themselves
against an onslaught of hungry cidiots. (For the uninformed, know that
cidiots are "city idiots.")
What data are these guys looking at ?
Do you think they may be cidiots ?
On Fri, Apr 3, 2009 at 2:32 PM, Bob Carver <bcarver@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Joe,
Thanks for your response. My reaction was the
same as yours.
Lakshman has a lot more experience with the
data, though, and I suspect the relative changes in the indicator may
be the key element to watch. If he says the indicator is pointing
toward a turn up in the economy, I think we have to give him the
benefit of the doubt as far as interpretation of his
indicator.
Personally, I think we're going to see a bounce in
the economy this year which fools the majority into thinking the
depression is over, but then we get another leg down when the stimulus
is withdrawn, making the overall pattern a big W (with successive Ws
added on as the arrow of time progresses to the right).
-- Bob
Carver "We
are at a cusp, a decision point. We can decide to go one way, to the
stars, and enjoy unlimited opportunities, unimagined possibilities,
endless evolution, and eternal racial life. Or we can refuse the
challenge, stay where we are---and die."
(Robert A.
Heinlein)Market Clues Blog · Thermopower Blog
From:
Joseph Ehardt <joseph.ehardt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE:
[TimeandCycles] Economic Cycle Turning Up/Recovery Ahead
To: TimeandCycles@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Friday,
April 3, 2009, 11:44 AM
Hi
Bob,
That is
an amazing conclusion drawn by Lakshman Achutlan. For one, how many
forecasters actually are prepared to say that the housing market has
unequivocally turned up (that the bottom is in)? Secondly, look at
the embedded chart and you can see that the rise in the ECRI WLI
coincides with the rise in the NYSE Composite, a factor that
Achutlan states as behind the improvement in the WLI. Question, what
happens if the NYSE Composite Index weakens again if future economic
reports resume weakness?
I
understand the correlation of the stock market as a leading economic
indicator, but it can be wrong (just as market corrections
"forecast" more recessions than actually appear). A short-term
improvement in the stock market is not the cause of a short-term
improvement in the economy. Analysts need to differentiate between
statistically significant (but error-prone) correlation-related
leading indicators and the actual business conditions that produce
economic recovery.
I'd be a
little more careful in my choice of words in forecasting an economic
recovery based on the growth rate improving from negative 23.2% to
negative 22.2%, especially given the particular factors that
produced that "improvement."
Joe
Silicon Valley,
CA
ECRI reports---
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic
growth edged up and its annualized growth rate reached a
23-week high though it was still in negative territory,
suggesting clearer signs of economic recovery, a research
group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based
independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index
climbed to 106.7 for the week ending March 27 from 106.2 in
the previous week, which was revised down from
106.3.
The index's annualized growth rate resumed its recent
upswing and was at negative 22.2 percent, up from the prior
week's rate of negative 23.2 percent. The growth rate was at
its highest reading since mid-October.
"With WLI growth rising to a 23-week high, an upturn in the
U.S. growth rate cycle is now in clear sight," said Lakshman
Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
The weekly index rose due to higher stock prices and
stronger housing activity, and was partly offset by higher
interest rates and claims for state jobless benefits, Achuthan
said.
--Bob
Carver
"We
are at a cusp, a decision point. We can decide to go one way,
to the stars, and enjoy unlimited opportunities, unimagined
possibilities, endless evolution, and eternal racial life. Or
we can refuse the challenge, stay where we are---and die."
(Robert
A. Heinlein)
Market Clues Blog ·Thermopower Blog
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talk because they have to say something." Plato
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